From Naufall Sanaullah of Shadow Capitalism we get a nice overview of the world economy and markets.
Posts Tagged ‘ US stocks ’
The Bear Arrives
From the Journal:
In reality I believe we have been in a bear. Most markets internationally have been there, the Russell 2000 and other slices are there. The major indexes are looking like they will move into bear territory today, but it would have happened earlier if not for the remarkable out performance of the highest quality low beta stocks. Most stocks have dropped more precipitously into bear territory already.
Coincident and Lagging Indicators Can Lead the Market
The Coincident to Lagging Indicators ratio continues its decline for the fifth month in a row. It has a 92.5% correlation to the S&P500.
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Free Markets Work: Bailout Riven Caricatures Don’t
John Hussman is one of my must reads, so I am not sure how we can give it any more importance, but we should this week. John touches on a number of subjects today, including why the European Stability Fund being levered up is a bad idea and the ECRI's recession call. But the...
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The Death of Equities II: Historical Fact Should Inform Our Opinions
We have been in a secular bear market since 2000. How will we know when the next upward run is from a long term bottom and not just another upside trip on a rollercoaster to nowhere?
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Art Cashin on Yesterday’s Panic Selling
But, the selling was far more pervasive and dramatic than simply a conscious adjustment of positions based upon new data. Thursday’s action screamed liquidation - and not all of it voluntary.
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Further Reading: Let Them Eat the Young Edition
Looking into the presidential cycle, systemic eurozone issues, good news on the US credit situation, and the wonders of confirmation bias in today's Further Reading...
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Kass: Low Rates Don’t Hold the Answer
Doug Kass updates Where I now Stand with a recitation for why the Fed is now powerless. As before I find his thoughts reasonable when it comes to the market, but with some caveats on the risk reward ratio.
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The Power of Dividends – And What They Say About Future Returns
Advisor Perspectives magazine has just published our latest:
"The return on equities is driven by dividends, since companies must ultimately distribute their hard-earned cash to shareholders. Given that reality, recent history of dividend yields portends a disappointing future for US equity investors, one of sub-par returns relative to historical averages."
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Dr. Ed on Earnings: Maybe too Positive?
Dr. Ed Yardeni who has been very bullish on earnings now believes that even if we don't have a recession earnings will slow dramatically next year and fourth quarter earnings are likely to have more negative guidance and downside surprises. We think he may be a tad optimistic from looking at the information he...
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BOB Doll on US Equities
Bob Doll sees markets as overly pessimistic and thus the upside may be substantial should any positive surprises appear.
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Kass: Where I Now Stand
Doug Kass sets down some reasonable scenarios moving forward. I believe the potential for profit margin contraction more severe than he does, even without a deep recession. In general the scenarios and probabilities seem reasonable to me though and the whole piece is well worth reading...
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The View From the Bluff: Go Long the Real and Important, Short the Artificial and Stupid
When the investing world seems to be emphasizing the artificial and the stupid, we should be looking at the real and the important.
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- The False Promise of Buybacks-Updated
- Valuation: The Key to Long Term Returns
- The Handicap of Experienced Investors
- Dividends, the Key to Long Term Returns, Even for Growth Stocks
- The Death of Equities II: Historical Fact Should Inform Our Opinions
- Will Eurobonds Work?
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