Lance on Nov 18 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Domestic Equities, Valuation, indexes
Yes, but they are supposed to be if you want reasonable returns for the risk, which is one more reason the Fed Model is wrong. Compared to the past however not that cheap. Jim Hamilton takes a look:
We’re currently at a P/E around 14, a bit below the historical long-run average P/E of 16.3, meaning [...]
Lance on Oct 14 2008 | Filed under: Risk, Valuation, today's links
Yesterday was one fo the best days ever for the stock markets:
What does it mean? I think it ultimately depends on factors unrelated to the move itself. Econompic provides us with some context:
Obviously large one day moves in and of themselves tell us little about what is to come. So, let us at least look [...]
Lance on Aug 25 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Commodities, Developing Markets, Domestic Equities, Domestic Fixed Income, Emerging Markets, Energy, Federal Reserve, Global Equity, Global Fixed Income, Housing Market, Metals, Risk, Valuation, economy, real estate
Hedge Fund manager Doug Kass has some questions that clients should ask of their advisors. I should point out that everybody has a bad year, I assume we will have a point where we will have to ask these questions in a harsher light of ourselves. However, these questions can separate those who you might [...]
Lance on Jan 29 2008 | Filed under: Absolute Return, Asset Allocation, Commodities, Developing Markets, Domestic Equities, Domestic Fixed Income, Great Investors, Hedge Funds, International Equities, Managed Futures, Portable Alpha, Relative Return, Risk
Finally it is the long-term investor, he who most promotes the public interest, who will in practice come in for most criticism, wherever investment funds are managed by committees or boards or banks. For it is in the essence of his behaviour that he should be eccentric, unconventional and rash in the eyes of average [...]
Lance on Jan 25 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Domestic Equities, Risk, Taxes
Where Have Buybacks Gone, asks the Wall Street Journal? I cannot tell you how often I heard that buybacks were going to keep earnings strong (Ken Fisher in particular comes to mind.) As the Journal points out, that can dry up if people need the capital, or in a related issue, have loaded themselves up [...]
Lance on Jan 23 2008 | Filed under: Domestic Equities, Emerging Markets, Global Equity, International Equities, Market Data
This is a very cool look at the market carnage of the last few days geographically from the Wall Street Journal. You can go from one day to the next and watch how the markets in various places rose and fell*. Hat tip: James Hamilton (who has interesting observations on what happened.)
Click here for Global [...]
Lance on Jan 23 2008 | Filed under: Domestic Equities, Economic Indicators, Economics, Housing Market
Dale Franks gives his rundown on what to look for going forward from the economy, and the implications for investors:
We’ve dropped off about 20% from the stock price highs of October, so we’re about due for a rally. Especially with the Fed obliging everyone with rate cuts. At this point, though, I’d look askance at [...]
Lance on Jan 23 2008 | Filed under: Domestic Equities, Economic Indicators, Economics, Federal Reserve, Global Equity, Government policy, Housing Market, International Equities, Latest data, Market Data, Risk, monetary policy
Like me, Barry Ritholtz sniffed a whiff of panic in the Fed’s actions yesterday. The question he asks is why they acted before their meeting. Here are his questions, all good. I have pretty much stolen the whole post. Hopefully Barry will not mind:
What does this mean for investors. Quite a number of things – [...]
Lance on Jan 10 2008 | Filed under: Around the Web
Bloomberg had a headline a while back which screamed Cheapest Stocks in Two Decades Signal Bull Market. This is based on the so-called Fed Model.
I think this is a really flawed model.
The Big Picture explained why he agrees with me.
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