The European sovereign debt crisis is rapidly approaching what could be a significant tipping point as it threatens to spread to the heart of Europe. In recent days Italian 10-year bond yields have soared to 7.22% and today Spain was forced to pay 6.975% at its auction. Even French 10-year yields have climbed to...
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David Rosenberg describes what the end of the bull market in bonds, and the end of the bear market in stocks, should look like.
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What ultimately determines stock returns? Is it earnings? No. It is dividends, even for companies that presently pay none. Today we discuss why dividends are the key to long term returns, even when we discuss growth stocks that pay little or no dividend.
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Still overvalued, lousy environment though a decent equity bounce could happen sometime in the next few months.
Drawing from a number of sources we have discussed here at Risk and Return such as John Hussman, Howard Marks and Albert Edwards amongst others, John Mauldin considers the potential for a full blown credit crisis to erupt in Europe. Given how our own credit crisis interacted with others in 2008 it seems wise...
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Yes, but they are supposed to be if you want reasonable returns for the risk, which is one more reason the Fed Model is wrong. Compared to the past however not that cheap. Jim Hamilton takes a look: We’re currently at a P/E around 14, a bit below the historical long-run average P/E of...
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Yesterday was one fo the best days ever for the stock markets: What does it mean? I think it ultimately depends on factors unrelated to the move itself. Econompic provides us with some context: Obviously large one day moves in and of themselves tell us little about what is to come. So, let us...
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Finally it is the long-term investor, he who most promotes the public interest, who will in practice come in for most criticism, wherever investment funds are managed by committees or boards or banks. For it is in the essence of his behaviour that he should be eccentric, unconventional and rash in the eyes of...
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This is a very cool look at the market carnage of the last few days geographically from the Wall Street Journal. You can go from one day to the next and watch how the markets in various places rose and fell*. Hat tip: James Hamilton (who has interesting observations on what happened.) Click here...
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Dale Franks gives his rundown on what to look for going forward from the economy, and the implications for investors: We’ve dropped off about 20% from the stock price highs of October, so we’re about due for a rally. Especially with the Fed obliging everyone with rate cuts. At this point, though, I’d...
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Like me, Barry Ritholtz sniffed a whiff of panic in the Fed’s actions yesterday. The question he asks is why they acted before their meeting. Here are his questions, all good. I have pretty much stolen the whole post. Hopefully Barry will not mind: What does this mean for investors. Quite a number of...
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Bloomberg had a headline a while back which screamed Cheapest Stocks in Two Decades Signal Bull Market. This is based on the so-called Fed Model. I think this is a really flawed model. The Big Picture explained why he agrees with me. Download article as PDF
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