Posts Tagged ‘ Robert Shiller ’

Interview with Robert Shiller

August 30, 2011

Robert Shiller, famous for predicting the Crash of 2000 and the bursting of the housing bubble discusses the role of psychology on stocks, housing and the economy.

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Butler|Philbrick & Associates have published the full report we discussed here. One aspect of the report we touched on earlier was that it combines a number of different methods to test their effectiveness as well as show the returns each projects. In our own research we use components of returns analysis such GMO and...
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Robert Shiller on the Stock Market and Real Estate

By Lance Paddock

June 16, 2011

I know we keep hearing from many quarters that stocks are cheap. We disagree vehemently and today we bring you an expert witness. Having called the last few bubbles economist Robert Shiller discusses why he believes stocks are at least 40% overvalued and Real Estate could fall in real terms (meaning adjusted for inflation) another 25%. Click read more to see second video. Hat tip: Prag Cap

Valuation: The Key to Long Term Returns

By Lance Paddock

June 15, 2011

One of the positives that we have seen since 2008 is that more and more advisors are looking at ways of legitimately projecting future returns rather than just plugging in what has happened in the past with some minor adjustments. Long time readers know that we feel that future returns can be projected within...
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Housing Bubble Charts!-Updated

By Lance Paddock

November 26, 2008

Here is a nice collection of charts based on Robert Shiller’s data. First, the really long term: For those who haven’t been here before the housing category and tag has lots more on the bubble. My thoughts on the latest data, and that in reality this is long term a good thing, can be...
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Are Stocks Cheap Yet?

By Lance Paddock

November 18, 2008

Yes, but they are supposed to be if you want reasonable returns for the risk, which is one more reason the Fed Model is wrong. Compared to the past however not that cheap. Jim Hamilton takes a look: We’re currently at a P/E around 14, a bit below the historical long-run average P/E of...
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Fundamentally there was no housing bubble? (updated)

By Lance Paddock

February 14, 2008

Fundamentally there was no housing bubble? (updated)

So claims Alex Tabarrok. Alex and his blogmate Tyler are two of my favorite bloggers, but on this matter I think Alex is wrong. Unlike for some, his argument doesn’t invite scorn, because humility should teach us that sometimes things are different, and we cannot always fully understand why, at least not until after...
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Case-Shiller vs. OFHEO

By Lance Paddock

January 17, 2008

There has been a considerable difference between the two indexes of housing prices. Calculated Risk notes a new paper analyzing why and notes these implications: This suggests that one of main differences between OFHEO and Case-Shiller was that Case-Shiller included many non-agency homes financed with subprime loans. These homes saw more appreciation during the...
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