Mark Hulbert addresses a topic that is quite timely. When different advisers or commenters arrive at different conclusions, especially when they seem to be using the same type of reasoning, how do we know what to think? Frankly, most of the time we humans tend to choose the conclusion which we want the data...
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Over at dshort.com there is an interesting look at valuation and regression to the mean (click image to link to larger version) The peak in 2000 marked an unprecedented 160% overshooting of the trend, which is double the overshoot in 1929. The index has been above the trend for 17 years. We also see...
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