Lance on Oct 14 2008 | Filed under: Risk, Valuation, today's links
Yesterday was one fo the best days ever for the stock markets:
What does it mean? I think it ultimately depends on factors unrelated to the move itself. Econompic provides us with some context:
Obviously large one day moves in and of themselves tell us little about what is to come. So, let us at least look [...]
Lance on Feb 08 2008 | Filed under: Economic Indicators, Economics, economy
Our firm has a long history with Russell Investments , and my personal relationship with the firm goes back all the way to 1983, so I have a great deal of interest in their research.
Michael Dueker is a senior portfolio strategist at Russell and has an interesting model for predicting recessions which he discusses at [...]
Lance on Jan 30 2008 | Filed under: Economic Indicators, Economics, Federal Reserve, Latest data, Risk, today's links
The GDP numbers came out yesterday. For a breakdown, including the inflation component, go here. For the announcement from the BEA go here. The Fed also cut rates by 50bps. Here is the Journal’s story.
Reactions:
Barry Rithotlz- Q4 GDP: El Stinko!
• Consumption slowed to 2% from 2.8% in Q3; I suspect that only partly reflects real [...]
Lance on Jan 28 2008 | Filed under: Great Investors, economy
Really, I just wanted to post this line :
Now celebrating 10 years of predicting the end of the world, George Soros takes a huge dive into the pool of confirmation bias
Go read what he is referring to. Not only is that a compelling image and well written sentence, he is right.
I know, I know. In [...]
Lance on Jan 25 2008 | Filed under: Domestic Equities, Economic Indicators, Economics, Market Data
As I noted earlier, Dale Franks was curious about how Harley Davidson (HOG) would do on its latest earnings release:
One earnings report to watch this week, though, is Harley-Davidson (HOG). It’s a solid company with a loyal customer base—I’m one of them actually—but, motorcycles are a luxury item. For every guy [...]
Lance on Jan 25 2008 | Filed under: Absolute Return, Asset Allocation, China, Domestic Equities, Economic Indicators, Economics, Federal Reserve, Global Equity, Hedge Funds, International Equities, Latest data, Risk, today's links
Morningstar takes a look at the Long/Short category of mutual funds. They, like I, appreciate John Hussman.
China turned in yet another double digit year:
China’s economy grew by 11.4 per cent in 2007, the highest pace in 13 years, but the trend of decelerating exports to a slowing US recorded in the final two quarters is [...]
Lance on Jan 17 2008 | Filed under: Developing Markets, Economics, Emerging Markets, Federal Reserve, Housing Market, Latest data, Risk
Ben Bernanke gives Congress and the President the green light to take steps to stimulate the economy along with a warning:
Lance on Jan 16 2008 | Filed under: Economic Indicators, Economics, Federal Reserve, Housing Market, Latest data, Market Data, today's links
Can I ask for some applause for this from Crossing Wall Street?
I have to agree with Frederic Mishkin of the Fed:
I think there is too much focus on what decision will be made about the federal funds rate target at the next FOMC meeting. What is important for pricing most financial assets is the path [...]
Lance on Jan 15 2008 | Filed under: Economics, Federal Reserve, Government policy, Housing Market, Politics
Barry Ritholtz, Andrew Ross Sorkin, Dottie Herman, Noah Rosenblatt and Nouriel Roubini debate the housing market and its impact on the economy.
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Hat tip: Barry Ritholtz
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Lance on Jan 14 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market, Latest data
Paper Economy has taken a close look at what it will take to get inflation adjusted housing prices in Massachusetts back to trend over a five year period. It should be noted that for this to happen sooner the decline would have to be deeper (due to inflation doing less of the work for us.)
The [...]
Lance on Jan 11 2008 | Filed under: Baton Rouge News, Economics, Housing Market, Louisiana
While the economic outlook for the nation as a whole is pretty murky, Louisiana, and Baton Rouge specifically, may be in a better position:
Peter Ricchiuti, assistant dean of the A.B. Freeman School of Business at Tulane University, said the New Orleans-area economy is countercyclical because of all the energy interests. When high energy prices cause [...]
Lance on Jan 11 2008 | Filed under: Economics, Federal Reserve, Government policy, monetary policy, tax policy
The economy is slowing, and if we are not already in a recession (I think we probably are) the risks of one are certainly high. So should our politicians do something with fiscal policy? Alex Taborrak says no:
Fourth, in their desperation to “do something” politicians will often do something foolish. If a spending increase [...]
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