Posts Tagged ‘ John Hussman ’

Caterpillar and the Economic Outlook

January 26, 2012

According to Caterpillar the US and Global economy will not go into recession. Should we consider their opinion important?
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The German Dilemma

By Lance Paddock

November 14, 2011

There are no good options for Europe. Today John Hussman and I look at what is at stake and how it is likely to play out. The point is that there are no "good" options from Germany's point of view. However, a tanking economy may be a small price to pay compared to endless...
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Lagging Versus Leading Indicators

By Lance Paddock

October 30, 2011

John Hussman asks us to consider the importance of leading versus lagging economic indicators...
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Penny Wise and Euro Foolish

By Lance Paddock

October 24, 2011

The bottom line is a) European leaders will likely initiate a forced bank recapitalization within days; b) Greece will default, but the new hold-over funding may give the country a few more months; c) the EFSF will not be "leveraged" by the European Central Bank; d) banks are likely to take haircuts of not...
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All Clear?

By Lance Paddock

October 12, 2011

We don't know whether we will enter an actual recession sometime over the next six months or not. We do think it is quite possible, and we do think current economic data that has been hyped as showing no recession are showing no such thing. Instead they merely show we are likely not in...
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Free Markets Work: Bailout Riven Caricatures Don’t

By Lance Paddock

October 3, 2011

John Hussman is one of my must reads, so I am not sure how we can give it any more importance, but we should this week. John touches on a number of subjects today, including why the European Stability Fund being levered up is a bad idea and the ECRI's recession call. But the...
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Dividends, the Key to Long Term Returns, Even for Growth Stocks

By Lance Paddock

September 12, 2011

What ultimately determines stock returns? Is it earnings? No. It is dividends, even for companies that presently pay none. Today we discuss why dividends are the key to long term returns, even when we discuss growth stocks that pay little or no dividend.
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Fed Policy – No Theory, No Evidence, No Transmission Mechanism

By Lance Paddock

September 12, 2011

John Hussman takes a close look at the Federal Reserve's options. As always a must read as he dissects the reason's why they didn't work last time (except to encourage speculation) and will not work this time.
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Preparing for a Credit Crisis

By John Mauldin

September 11, 2011

Drawing from a number of sources we have discussed here at Risk and Return such as John Hussman, Howard Marks and Albert Edwards amongst others, John Mauldin considers the potential for a full blown credit crisis to erupt in Europe. Given how our own credit crisis interacted with others in 2008 it seems wise...
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The View From the Bluff: Go Long the Real and Important, Short the Artificial and Stupid

By Lance Paddock

September 6, 2011

When the investing world seems to be emphasizing the artificial and the stupid, we should be looking at the real and the important.
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The Recession Signature

By Lance Paddock

August 29, 2011

John Hussman has warned for a few weeks now (as he did in late 2007) that we are now observing a set of conditions that every recession has exhibited, as well as conditions that when they have appeared have always been during or immediately prior to a recession (though the confirmation that it...
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The View From The Bluff: The Fork in the Road

By Lance Paddock

August 24, 2011

Now that the "relief rally" we expected has arrived, we encourage investors to think carefully about how to use this respite.
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Are We There Yet? The Value Restoration Project Resumes

By JJ Abodeeley

August 17, 2011

Most of us can relate to driving and having children ask "Are we there yet?" JJ Abodeeley tries to answer that question. Like us, JJ sees what we have been going through since 2000 as a long process of the market working itself from an expensive peak to a cheap bottom. JJ calls...
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Probability of a Greek Default

By Lance Paddock

June 20, 2011

John Hussman looks at the implied probability of a Greek default. Verdict, nearly certain, but not yet.
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Market Oversold, but longer term we need to fear “Aunt Minnie”

By Lance Paddock

June 13, 2011

John Hussmann believes the market is very oversold, and thus a short rally should commence to clear the condition. After that? The data doesn’t look good, Aunt Minnie is nearing.
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More “Money on the Sidelines” Nonsense

By Lance Paddock

September 28, 2009

Barry Ritholtz jumps on one of my pet peeves, the whole “gobs of money on the sidelines” scam (silliness, nonsense or delusion work also) which constantly crops up in financial commentary. Folks, don’t fall for it. The stock market may rise or fall in coming months but “money on the sidelines” will not have...
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When Are We Being Chicken Littles?

By Lance Paddock

October 1, 2008

Let us look at one of the ways that we are being panicked unnecessarily, and why incidentally we can help many of these financial institutions in the fashion I discussed in my post on a potential alternative plan. In my next post we will discuss ways in which we are not being misled, and...
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My favorite proposal for helping financial institutions

By Lance Paddock

October 1, 2008

I do believe we should be doing something as a nation, through our government, to avoid the not insignificant chance of a total financial meltdown. I have seen several things proposed that I find interesting, and I will get into them and other longer term issues in coming days. I had hoped to address...
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