I've definitely developed an acute case of wishing Europe would go away already, and after this week I'm cautiously optimistic that may actually occur in an acute sense for a least a few months. The combo of the ECB announcements on Thursday with what appears to be coming out of the EU summit provides...
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Today we look at Inflation data, Mortgage Applications, Industrial Production and utilization, and the Housing Market Index.
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The Producer Price Index, Retail Sales and the Empire Sate manufacturing Index were all released today...
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From Naufall Sanaullah of Shadow Capitalism we get a nice overview of the world economy and markets.
There are no good options for Europe. Today John Hussman and I look at what is at stake and how it is likely to play out. The point is that there are no "good" options from Germany's point of view. However, a tanking economy may be a small price to pay compared to endless...
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Today James Dailey delves into the battle between inflation and deflation our economy faces. James believes that while the challenges our economy faces are inherently deflationary this will ultimately be resolved with massive money printing.
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Given that we owe some $75-80 trillion dollars in the coming years, over 5 times current GDP and growing every year John Mauldin, with a nod to Bernanke's helicopter speech asks, "Can ‘it' (hyperinflation) really happen here?"
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What is America good at? Is trade and openess the issue, or the lack of it? The corporate profits bubble and other thoughts, links and errata.
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What ultimately determines stock returns? Is it earnings? No. It is dividends, even for companies that presently pay none. Today we discuss why dividends are the key to long term returns, even when we discuss growth stocks that pay little or no dividend.
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Patrick Peterson makes we LSU fans proud, with a little chuckle, Europe slides down a drain of its own making, China builds empty cities (yes, they are still doing it) and we learn how to increase our chances at winning the office football pool and skunk our friends at Monopoly.
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The last two posts have looked at the question of whether we will go into, or already are, in a recession. We look here at other evidence along those lines. Regular readers know my admiration for Doug Short and his wonderful charts. Today Doug looks at different ways to calculate Real GDP and whether...
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Some people I read everything they write. Neils Jensen of Absolute Return Partners is one. Even when I am not sure I agree he challenges my thinking in ways that are sure to make me, and you, better investors.
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American Public Media’s Paddy Hirsch does a good job of breaking down the deflation and inflation risks we are facing. I think he ends up discussing the likely outcome. Deflation, or at least very low inflation, for the next 2-3 years followed by accelerating inflationary pressures for the next 5-7 years. Inflation from Marketplace...
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While spending increased in March by 1.8% over a year ago, adjusted for inflation it was way down. The only reason sales were positive was gasoline, though food sales were positive. Even there, that is mostly due to inflation and rising prices of food and staples. Download article as PDF
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Bad news for the monolines. FGIC just got downgraded today to AA. That pretty much puts them out of the business of insuring municipal bonds. NYS Commissioner of Insurance has suggested splitting the Muni bond business from the rest of the insurers. FGIC seems to now think that isn’t a bad idea. Of course,...
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Contra David Merkel, Amity Schlaes says a choice can be made, and Bernanke’s worry should be inflation. Update: David left me a comment, so I am going to include it, and my response: I’m not saying regulators won’t be forced to make a choice, or what that choice might be. My opinion on what...
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David Merkel says both. Download article as PDF
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Like me, Barry Ritholtz sniffed a whiff of panic in the Fed’s actions yesterday. The question he asks is why they acted before their meeting. Here are his questions, all good. I have pretty much stolen the whole post. Hopefully Barry will not mind: What does this mean for investors. Quite a number of...
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