Lance on Feb 10 2010 | Filed under: Housing Market
On the heels of last weeks delightfully mixed bag of employment data (job creation looks like it may be out of reverse and into neutral) we get some new housing data. There the signals are more disquieting, if expected (at least by me.) The housing market may now be heading back down.
The interesting aspect of [...]
Lance on Sep 27 2009 | Filed under: Uncategorized
Our government is now on the hook for trillions in mortgage loans, and traders are making money selling them more debt. The problem is that the bailout just may be suffering losses that are leaving our government scrambling to shuffle the pea from cup to cup. From Heidi Moore:
Look deeper, however, and the government isn’t [...]
Lance on Jun 19 2009 | Filed under: Currency, Dollar, Economic Indicators, Economics, Employment, Federal Reserve, Government policy, Housing Market, Inflation, economy
We conducted our first webcast last week, an update on the housing market, unemployment and the economy. We had a couple of technical issues which were a bit distracting, and we need a new microphone, but all in all a fair overview of the economy which was well received by those who attended. The webcast [...]
Lance on Dec 19 2008 | Filed under: Government policy, Housing Market, economy
I have already given the only measure that I think makes sense when it comes to the housing crisis, but people keep coming up with others. Like most of the ideas coming out to deal with this crisis, Glenn Hubbard and Charlie Mayer try to convince us that the way to deal with our credit [...]
Lance on Nov 25 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market, economy
We keep hearing about positive signs month after month, but the latest data on the housing markets shows the pace of declines has been accelerating and widening, not slowing down.
In my opinion this is good. The decline in prices of overvalued assets is a good thing, whether houses, stocks or debt. The problem has been [...]
Lance on Nov 24 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Emerging Markets, Global Equity, Global Fixed Income, Great Investors, Housing Market, Risk, Valuation, economy
As far as I know Jeremy Grantham has never appeared for the general public on TV or video. We get a real treat from Consuelo Mack of Wealthtrack with Jeremy dispensing advice about where the market is now. Like myself he sees the market as reasonably cheap, but not spectacularly so. He gives sound advice [...]
Lance on Oct 01 2008 | Filed under: economy
I do believe we should be doing something as a nation, through our government, to avoid the not insignificant chance of a total financial meltdown. I have seen several things proposed that I find interesting, and I will get into them and other longer term issues in coming days. I had hoped to address this [...]
Lance on Jul 28 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market, economy
Thanks to Barry Ritholtz I found this analysis from Vladimir Klyuev at the IMF, What Goes Up Must Come Down? House Price Dynamics in the United States.
While I have been of the opinion we have a good ways to go, I think these charts are pretty telling. I don’t see anything here to make me [...]
Lance on Jul 09 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market, Politics, economy, real estate
You may remember the website we discussed back in January. Dale Franks just discovered their program, because they now are on Television. He asks the obvious question:
So, should the mortgage companies get off scott-free from facing the results of their poor business decisions when it comes to the loans—loans they shouldn’t have made in the [...]
Lance on Feb 11 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market
Anybody see a bottom when this kind of thing is happening?
“Luxury builder Toll Brothers Inc (TOL), hurt as many buyers to try to get out of contracts for new homes amid falling prices, says a member of its founding family is trying to walk away from an agreement to buy a new condominium.
The daughter of [...]
Lance on Feb 11 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Economics, Great Investors, Housing Market, Risk, Valuation
Jeremy Grantham echoes a few themes here at Risk and Return in this interview with Barron’s:
Secondly, this occurred at a time of what I believe is the first global bubble in pretty well all asset prices, so there is a much greater degree of broad-based vulnerability.
Lance on Feb 10 2008 | Filed under: Economic Indicators, Economics, Housing Market, technology
From the Financial Times:
Global spending on IT goods and services is expected to grow … 6 per cent … according to Forrester Research … This represents a significant slowdown from 12 per cent growth last year.
…
“Our forecast is premised on a mild recession in the US economy in the first two or three quarters of [...]
Lance on Jan 24 2008 | Filed under: Economics, Housing Market, Latest data
(Cross Posted at Risk and Return)
Of course prices have just started to decline. First you have to have sales volume decline and inventory build up:
Sales of existing homes fell in December, closing out a horrible year for housing in which sales of single-family homes plunged by the largest amount in 25 years. The median home [...]
Lance on Jan 17 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Domestic Equities, Economics, Federal Reserve, Government policy, Housing Market, Risk, monetary policy
Reader ChrisB asks in response to yesterdays link to Anna Schwartz’s comment on the Federal Reserve:
In retrospect, what should the fed have done differently?
Risk and Return is really about implications for investment policy, and thus identifying which factors have implications is key. Pumping for particular policy choices really isn’t our role. Still, in identifying what [...]
Lance on Jan 16 2008 | Filed under: Economic Indicators, Economics, Federal Reserve, Housing Market, Latest data, Market Data, today's links
Can I ask for some applause for this from Crossing Wall Street?
I have to agree with Frederic Mishkin of the Fed:
I think there is too much focus on what decision will be made about the federal funds rate target at the next FOMC meeting. What is important for pricing most financial assets is the path [...]
Lance on Jan 15 2008 | Filed under: Economics, Federal Reserve, Government policy, Housing Market, Politics
Barry Ritholtz, Andrew Ross Sorkin, Dottie Herman, Noah Rosenblatt and Nouriel Roubini debate the housing market and its impact on the economy.
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Hat tip: Barry Ritholtz
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