Risk and Return

Our government is now on the hook for trillions in mortgage loans, and traders are making money selling them more debt. The problem is that the bailout just may be suffering losses that are leaving our government scrambling to shuffle the pea from cup to cup. From Heidi Moore:
Look deeper, however, and the government isn’t [...]

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Yves Smith hits a theme I have been harping on, the Federal Reserve, and central banks in general, are making things worse in may ways by destroying the incentive for banks to lend or borrow from one another. She quotes James Bianco of Arbor Research:
The Fed’s massive and numerous liquidity facilities are making things worse. [...]

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I am often asked about individual bank stocks, especially JP Morgan. Generally my answer is that Bank of America, JP Morgan and a few others look to be likely survivors, but how profitable they will be I am really unsure.
JP Morgan is a special discussion, because I point out a rather astonishing fact, they have [...]

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I have argued in the past that the Federal Reserve’s policies may be helping in some ways, but hurting in others. Way too much borrowing and lending is running through the Fed which is drying up lending between banks. It also reduces the need for banks to find reasons to communicate and trust each other, [...]

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The Federal Reserve has for a long time eschewed increasing the money supply directly, and instead has manipulated credit to affect the economy and control inflation. This has led to three important things which are in my opinion at the root of this crisis.

Asset price inflation (at least initially) as opposed to broader price inflation.
A [...]

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Bad news for the monolines. FGIC just got downgraded today to AA. That pretty much puts them out of the business of insuring municipal bonds.
NYS Commissioner of Insurance has suggested splitting the Muni bond business from the rest of the insurers. FGIC seems to now think that isn’t a bad idea. Of course, since Elliot [...]

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Jeremy Grantham echoes a few themes here at Risk and Return in this interview with Barron’s:
Secondly, this occurred at a time of what I believe is the first global bubble in pretty well all asset prices, so there is a much greater degree of broad-based vulnerability.

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Much of what has been happening over the last year in the credit markets was foreseeable, if not assured. I will admit though, I hadn’t really considered this aspect.
A while back MBIA, AMBAC and other monoline insurers backed sleepy municipal bond portfolio’s. Having entered, and then become ensnared, in the broader credit markets, they face [...]

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The GDP numbers came out yesterday. For a breakdown, including the inflation component, go here. For the announcement from the BEA go here. The Fed also cut rates by 50bps. Here is the Journal’s story.

Reactions:
Barry Rithotlz- Q4 GDP: El Stinko!
• Consumption slowed to 2% from 2.8% in Q3; I suspect that only partly reflects real [...]

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Morningstar takes a look at the Long/Short category of mutual funds. They, like I, appreciate John Hussman.
China turned in yet another double digit year:
China’s economy grew by 11.4 per cent in 2007, the highest pace in 13 years, but the trend of decelerating exports to a slowing US recorded in the final two quarters is [...]

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Contra David Merkel, Amity Schlaes says a choice can be made, and Bernanke’s worry should be inflation.
Update: David left me a comment, so I am going to include it, and my response:
I’m not saying regulators won’t be forced to make a choice, or what that choice might be. My opinion on what should be done [...]

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Dale Franks gives his rundown on what to look for going forward from the economy, and the implications for investors:
We’ve dropped off about 20% from the stock price highs of October, so we’re about due for a rally. Especially with the Fed obliging everyone with rate cuts. At this point, though, I’d look askance at [...]

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Like me, Barry Ritholtz sniffed a whiff of panic in the Fed’s actions yesterday. The question he asks is why they acted before their meeting. Here are his questions, all good. I have pretty much stolen the whole post. Hopefully Barry will not mind:
What does this mean for investors. Quite a number of things – [...]

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From The New York Times:
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve, confronted with a global stock sell-off fanned by increased fears of a recession, cut a key interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point on Tuesday.
Quicker and larger than expected.  I am curious whether investors will, at the margin, consider this a move to celebrate [...]

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It seems world markets see the stimulus plan in the US as evidence for panic, not joy.
Stock markets around the world plummeted Monday, prompted by pessimism about U.S. President George W. Bush’s plans to boost the U.S. economy.
Share prices in Asia, Europe and the Americas all plunged by significant amounts; Wall Street only avoided joining [...]

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Ben Bernanke gives Congress and the President the green light to take steps to stimulate the economy along with a warning:

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Reader ChrisB asks in response to yesterdays link to Anna Schwartz’s comment on the Federal Reserve:
In retrospect, what should the fed have done differently?
Risk and Return is really about implications for investment policy, and thus identifying which factors have implications is key. Pumping for particular policy choices really isn’t our role. Still, in identifying what [...]

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The economy is slowing, and if we are not already in a recession (I think we probably are) the risks of one are certainly high. So should our politicians do something with fiscal policy? Alex Taborrak says no:

Fourth, in their desperation to “do something” politicians will often do something foolish. If a spending increase [...]

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