Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment Management Company have published their latest commentary on the US economy. This quarter they look at how public and private debt levels have stunted our economy's ability to grow.
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Posts Tagged ‘ Federal Reserve ’
Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook- First Quarter 2012
The Transparency Trap
The Transparency Trap Tell Us What You Think We Want to Hear A Very Soft GDP Number Central Banks: A High-Wire Balancing Act What Does It All Mean? A Few Thoughts on LTRO Greek Exhaustion Syndrome Cape Town, Stockholm, Geneva, Paris, and London This week we take a brief pause in our series on...
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Market Facing Strong Headwinds
Most U.S. portfolio managers seem to view the EU sovereign debt crisis as they would a pesky mosquito that refuses to fly away. If only the mosquito would leave, the asset managers could concentrate on the U.S. where the economy is said to be showing so much improvement and stocks are incorrectly perceived...
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TEAMThink- Summit Reaction
I've definitely developed an acute case of wishing Europe would go away already, and after this week I'm cautiously optimistic that may actually occur in an acute sense for a least a few months. The combo of the ECB announcements on Thursday with what appears to be coming out of the EU summit provides...
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Time to Bring Out the Howitzers
This week we saw a coordinated effort by central banks to use their bazookas to head off another 2008-style credit disaster. The market reacted as if the crisis is now over and we can get on to the next bull run. Yet, we will see that it wasn't enough. Something more along the lines...
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Central Bank Action Not A Solution
An emergency ejection of liquidity to prevent immediate Armageddon is not even a first step toward solving Europe's deep-seated problems. It's more or less the equivalent of the proverbial doctor telling a patient to "take two aspirin and see me in the morning". It treats the symptoms, but not the disease. ...
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Macro Market Update
From Naufall Sanaullah of Shadow Capitalism we get a nice overview of the world economy and markets.
The White Swan
James Dailey sees the potential for a strong rally as the government attempts to unfreeze the mortgage market and Ben Bernanke opens the monetary floodgates...
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The Slight Depression
Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt expect an out and out contraction to begin again over the next two quarters.
John Taylor: Long the Dollar and Short the Euro
John Taylor believes that Greece is going to default, that the euro will fall, and that the U.S. dollar's rebound has just started. It was his kind of week last week.
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Further Reading: Chicken and Waffles Edition
What is America good at? Is trade and openess the issue, or the lack of it? The corporate profits bubble and other thoughts, links and errata.
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Twist and Shout?
What in the wide, wild world of monetary policy is the Fed doing, giving essentially unlimited funds to European banks? What are they seeing that we do not? And is this a precursor to even more monetary easing at this next week’s extraordinary FOMC meeting, expanded to a two-day session by Bernanke? Can we...
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Liquidity will be provided? Where have we heard that before?
Central bankers worldwide are going to provide emergency liquidity to European financial institutions. This keeps the banks from collapsing because of insufficient liquidity, it does not solve the issue of insolvency. In fact, let us remember the hapless Dick Fuld in March of 2008:"The Federal Reserve's decision to create a lending facility for primary...
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Fed Policy – No Theory, No Evidence, No Transmission Mechanism
John Hussman takes a close look at the Federal Reserve's options. As always a must read as he dissects the reason's why they didn't work last time (except to encourage speculation) and will not work this time.
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Weekly Summary of Economic Data
Calculated Risk has their always excellent weekly roundup of Economic Releases from last week. Short and informative with their standout charts and graphs. New Home sales were down slightly, GDP was poor, mortgage delinquincies increased slightly, new home inventory was at the lowest on record (Yay!) but obviously the big issue is existing home inventory,...
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The Recession Signature
John Hussman has warned for a few weeks now (as he did in late 2007) that we are now observing a set of conditions that every recession has exhibited, as well as conditions that when they have appeared have always been during or immediately prior to a recession (though the confirmation that it...
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Roundup of the Manufacturing Surveys
The Kansas City Regional Survey was released today and rebounded sharply from May. Calculated Risk has a roundup of this month’s surveys and analysis of what they mean.
Systemic Risk from Finance: Tom Hoenig Speaks Out
A long running theme here at Risk and Return has been the inappropriate levels of risk our financial institutions run and our frustration with the bailing out of institutions because they are “too big to fail.” Whether in truth those institutions were too big to fail or not, the very fact that they are...
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Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Growth remained low, and the three-month moving average declined, though still above recessionary levels. Doug Short has a very good discussion of this indicator here.
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