The Transparency Trap Tell Us What You Think We Want to Hear A Very Soft GDP Number Central Banks: A High-Wire Balancing Act What Does It All Mean? A Few Thoughts on LTRO Greek Exhaustion Syndrome Cape Town, Stockholm, Geneva, Paris, and London This week we take a brief pause in our series on...
Read More »
Most U.S. portfolio managers seem to view the EU sovereign debt crisis as they would a pesky mosquito that refuses to fly away. If only the mosquito would leave, the asset managers could concentrate on the U.S. where the economy is said to be showing so much improvement and stocks are incorrectly perceived...
Read More »
We have two bits of commentary from Kyle Bass today. First he gave his usual straight forward views to CNBC this morning. Second his latest letter. Unfortunately I cannot find a version of the letter that can be printed or downloaded, so you will need to read it online.
From the Interview
“If you get out a blank piece of paper and have a look at it, that’s the plan they’re working from right now. Everything is an agreement in principle. There are no details. It’s very difficult to arrange such a disparate group of people, and get them all to cede their fiscal sovereignty to call it a central taxing authority, and in the absence of that, it won’t work.
…I think that if you look at this last agreement, from the last summit, it’s somewhat of a doomsday machine. What they’re talking about, are the ECB and governments guaranteeing the debts of the banks which in turn buy the debts of their country that’s making that guarantee, pledging it at that central bank and getting more money to go buy more debt of those countries.
It’s somewhat sophomoric if you ask me. It is a circular reference that I don’t think institutional investors around the world are going to buy, they might hoodwink some retail investors into buying these things. When you look at the periphery today, there are no buyers of peripheral bonds.”
Some of the best commentary I have read on the Euro, and from several different directions, from Gavekal. Truly a must read.
Read More »
I've definitely developed an acute case of wishing Europe would go away already, and after this week I'm cautiously optimistic that may actually occur in an acute sense for a least a few months. The combo of the ECB announcements on Thursday with what appears to be coming out of the EU summit provides...
Read More »
We have come to the end of yet another European Summit that was supposed to be the one to fix the problem. If you are confused as to what happened then you are not alone. There are two main points to be taken away from this week's meetings. First, the Germans really took control....
Read More »
As everyone knows the EU is meeting today and tomorrow in what is being billed as a last-ditch effort to save the Euro Zone. It is, of course, impossible to come up with a lasting solution in two days after almost two years of a patchwork series of conferences that have spurred short market...
Read More »
Despite markets having more moves than a MLB shortstop hitting .200, not all that much has changed in the past three weeks. We are still awaiting the latest iteration of a "plan" out of Europe, coincident economic data for the US remains ok, though leading indicators continue to forecast that a recession is already...
Read More »
Today's contribution from John Mauldin's friends at Gavekal is a must read. I often disagree with Gavekal, which is easy to do since as this debate shows they often disagree amongst themselves, but they always make me think.-Lance
Read More »
An emergency ejection of liquidity to prevent immediate Armageddon is not even a first step toward solving Europe's deep-seated problems. It's more or less the equivalent of the proverbial doctor telling a patient to "take two aspirin and see me in the morning". It treats the symptoms, but not the disease. ...
Read More »
Investors should recognize that Euroland’s problems are global and secular in nature, reflecting worldwide delevering and growth dynamics that began in 2008. It will be years before Euroland, the United States, Japan and developed nations in total can constructively escape from their straitjacket of high debt and low growth.
Read More »
Angela Merkel is leading the call for a rule change, a rewiring of the basic treaty that binds the EU. But is it both too much and too late? Then I glance over the other way and take notice of news out of China that may be of import.
Read More »
Germany is roundly seen as the obstacle to saving the Euro by refusing to allow massive bond purchases and refusing to consider Eurobonds. The real obstacles however are poor options, not Germany.
Read More »
The Eurozone must find at least €3 trillion (give or take) to pay for the sovereign debt “haircuts” and bank losses. Some argue it is only €2 trillion and others argue for €6 trillion. Whatever it is, it is such a large number that it cannot be found by borrowing or creating a special...
Read More »
Long-time readers will be familiar with Michael Lewitt, one of my favorite thinkers and analysts. John Mauldin has permission to use the first half of this most recent letter as today’s Outside the Box as he examines the empire of debt the world creaks under.
Read More »
From Naufall Sanaullah of Shadow Capitalism we get a nice overview of the world economy and markets.
There are no good options for Europe. Today John Hussman and I look at what is at stake and how it is likely to play out. The point is that there are no "good" options from Germany's point of view. However, a tanking economy may be a small price to pay compared to endless...
Read More »
Europe remains the focus of markets, and rightly so. But the picture is not as clear as one would like. Different analysts point to different problems – if only this one problem could be solved, then all this would go away, they tend to say. Sadly, it is not one problem but three that...
Read More »
Niels Jensen looks at the debt situation in the developed world, the implications for Europe and the potential opportunity in European equities and corporate bonds.
Read More »
If you are interested in joining our mailing list, please submit your email below.
