Lance on Oct 14 2008 | Filed under: Risk, Valuation, today's links
Yesterday was one fo the best days ever for the stock markets:
What does it mean? I think it ultimately depends on factors unrelated to the move itself. Econompic provides us with some context:
Obviously large one day moves in and of themselves tell us little about what is to come. So, let us at least look [...]
Lance on Oct 01 2008 | Filed under: economy
I do believe we should be doing something as a nation, through our government, to avoid the not insignificant chance of a total financial meltdown. I have seen several things proposed that I find interesting, and I will get into them and other longer term issues in coming days. I had hoped to address this [...]
Lance on Jul 28 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market, economy
Thanks to Barry Ritholtz I found this analysis from Vladimir Klyuev at the IMF, What Goes Up Must Come Down? House Price Dynamics in the United States.
While I have been of the opinion we have a good ways to go, I think these charts are pretty telling. I don’t see anything here to make me [...]
Lance on Jul 07 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Domestic Equities, Domestic Fixed Income, Economics, Risk, economy
Heavier hitters than myself are slowly lining up to put out estimates of the total losses from the credit crisis more in line with my thinking. Welcome aboard!
Using far more “off the cuff” methods than Nouriel Roubini, the IMF, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, UBS, John Paulson or Goldman Sachs, I have been expecting the starting [...]
Lance on Apr 07 2008 | Filed under: Domestic Equities, Economic Indicators, Economics, Housing Market, Latest data, economy
Personally I think we have been negative since November. Given the large positive number in the third quarter, the barely above break even number in the fourth quarter virtually guarantees that the economy went negative sometime in November and December. However, if we are not, it is highly likely coming. Here is a graphic which [...]
Lance on Feb 24 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market, Latest data, Politics, Risk, economy, indexes, real estate, today's links
We should start out with some humor:
A robber in a ski mask blamed the bank for what he was about to do, The Associated Press reported Feb. 22.
“You took my house, now I’m going to take your money!” the assailant hollered. Talk about a reverse mortgage!
The FBI plans to review the bank’s foreclosure records for [...]
Lance on Feb 15 2008 | Filed under: Economics, Federal Reserve, Hedge Funds, Latest data, economy, today's links
Bad news for the monolines. FGIC just got downgraded today to AA. That pretty much puts them out of the business of insuring municipal bonds.
NYS Commissioner of Insurance has suggested splitting the Muni bond business from the rest of the insurers. FGIC seems to now think that isn’t a bad idea. Of course, since Elliot [...]
Lance on Feb 10 2008 | Filed under: Around the Web
Maybe not so much:
U.S. payrolls: Negative 17,000 + Huge Downward Revisions for 2007
Overstated Job Creation by 14.38% in 2007
Lance on Feb 08 2008 | Filed under: Economic Indicators, Economics, economy
Our firm has a long history with Russell Investments , and my personal relationship with the firm goes back all the way to 1983, so I have a great deal of interest in their research.
Michael Dueker is a senior portfolio strategist at Russell and has an interesting model for predicting recessions which he discusses at [...]
Lance on Jan 30 2008 | Filed under: Economic Indicators, Housing Market
youwalkaway.com
I really have little to add to my declaration of extreme discomfort.
H/T: Barry Ritholtz
Much more on this here.
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Lance on Jan 25 2008 | Filed under: Domestic Equities, Economic Indicators, Economics, Market Data
As I noted earlier, Dale Franks was curious about how Harley Davidson (HOG) would do on its latest earnings release:
One earnings report to watch this week, though, is Harley-Davidson (HOG). It’s a solid company with a loyal customer base—I’m one of them actually—but, motorcycles are a luxury item. For every guy [...]
Lance on Jan 21 2008 | Filed under: Baton Rouge News, Economics, Employment, Latest data, Louisiana
To start, we are having a boom in our petrochemical industry :
“We have counted $45 billion in construction projects in the area, by far a record number for the region,” Scott says. While other parts of the country struggle economically, the Capital Region is experiencing growth in part from its expanding petrochemical industry.
The film industry [...]
Lance on Jan 17 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market, Latest data
There has been a considerable difference between the two indexes of housing prices. Calculated Risk notes a new paper analyzing why and notes these implications:
This suggests that one of main differences between OFHEO and Case-Shiller was that Case-Shiller included many non-agency homes financed with subprime loans. These homes saw more appreciation during the boom, and [...]
Lance on Jan 15 2008 | Filed under: Economics, Federal Reserve, Government policy, Housing Market, Politics
Barry Ritholtz, Andrew Ross Sorkin, Dottie Herman, Noah Rosenblatt and Nouriel Roubini debate the housing market and its impact on the economy.
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Hat tip: Barry Ritholtz
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