Lance on Feb 24 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market, Latest data, Politics, Risk, economy, indexes, real estate, today's links
We should start out with some humor:
A robber in a ski mask blamed the bank for what he was about to do, The Associated Press reported Feb. 22.
“You took my house, now I’m going to take your money!” the assailant hollered. Talk about a reverse mortgage!
The FBI plans to review the bank’s foreclosure records for [...]
Lance on Feb 21 2008 | Filed under: Domestic Equities, Domestic Fixed Income, Economics, Federal Reserve, Global Fixed Income, Government policy, Housing Market, Risk, economy, monetary policy
Martin Feldstein, stepping down from heading up the National Bureau of Economic Research since 1977, has piece in the Wall Street Journal that is rather pessimistic about the economic outlook. More tellingly he thinks the recession, if it occurs (and like me, he suspects it has already begun) will be more difficult to stimulate our [...]
Lance on Feb 17 2008 | Filed under: Economics, Government policy, economy
To spending rather than saving. From Atlas Blogged:
NYC Mayor Bloomberg on the federal economic stimulus plan:
They want to send out a check to everybody to stimulate the economy… I suppose it won’t hurt the economy, but it’s in many senses like giving a drink to an alcoholic.
Hey, hey, hey… alcohol a depressant. This is [...]
Lance on Feb 15 2008 | Filed under: Economics, Federal Reserve, Hedge Funds, Latest data, economy, today's links
Bad news for the monolines. FGIC just got downgraded today to AA. That pretty much puts them out of the business of insuring municipal bonds.
NYS Commissioner of Insurance has suggested splitting the Muni bond business from the rest of the insurers. FGIC seems to now think that isn’t a bad idea. Of course, since Elliot [...]
Lance on Feb 14 2008 | Filed under: Economics, Housing Market, monetary policy
So claims Alex Tabarrok. Alex and his blogmate Tyler are two of my favorite bloggers, but on this matter I think Alex is wrong. Unlike for some, his argument doesn’t invite scorn, because humility should teach us that sometimes things are different, and we cannot always fully understand why, at least not until after the [...]
Lance on Jan 30 2008 | Filed under: Economic Indicators, Economics, Federal Reserve, Latest data, Risk, today's links
The GDP numbers came out yesterday. For a breakdown, including the inflation component, go here. For the announcement from the BEA go here. The Fed also cut rates by 50bps. Here is the Journal’s story.
Reactions:
Barry Rithotlz- Q4 GDP: El Stinko!
• Consumption slowed to 2% from 2.8% in Q3; I suspect that only partly reflects real [...]
Lance on Jan 25 2008 | Filed under: Domestic Equities, Economic Indicators, Economics, Market Data
As I noted earlier, Dale Franks was curious about how Harley Davidson (HOG) would do on its latest earnings release:
One earnings report to watch this week, though, is Harley-Davidson (HOG). It’s a solid company with a loyal customer base—I’m one of them actually—but, motorcycles are a luxury item. For every guy [...]
Lance on Jan 23 2008 | Filed under: Domestic Equities, Economic Indicators, Economics, Housing Market
Dale Franks gives his rundown on what to look for going forward from the economy, and the implications for investors:
We’ve dropped off about 20% from the stock price highs of October, so we’re about due for a rally. Especially with the Fed obliging everyone with rate cuts. At this point, though, I’d look askance at [...]
Lance on Jan 21 2008 | Filed under: Baton Rouge News, Economics, Employment, Latest data, Louisiana
To start, we are having a boom in our petrochemical industry :
“We have counted $45 billion in construction projects in the area, by far a record number for the region,” Scott says. While other parts of the country struggle economically, the Capital Region is experiencing growth in part from its expanding petrochemical industry.
The film industry [...]
Lance on Jan 17 2008 | Filed under: China, Developing Markets, Economics, Emerging Markets, Trade
This is a stunning statistic:
…the annual expansion in China’s trade has been larger than India’s total annual trade during last several years.
Tyler Cowen hones in on this point, amongst a bounty of good points:
The most important factor that still holds back large [Indian] firms from entering these products is a set of draconian labour laws [...]
Lance on Jan 16 2008 | Filed under: Economic Indicators, Economics, Federal Reserve, Housing Market, Latest data, Market Data, today's links
Can I ask for some applause for this from Crossing Wall Street?
I have to agree with Frederic Mishkin of the Fed:
I think there is too much focus on what decision will be made about the federal funds rate target at the next FOMC meeting. What is important for pricing most financial assets is the path [...]
Lance on Jan 15 2008 | Filed under: Economics, Housing Market
From a post at the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s buzz.com describing the impact on neighborhoods in Minneapolis of the spiraling number of foreclosures. Each pin is a foreclosure. 725 total in North Side. (HT: Instapundit)
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Lance on Jan 14 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market, Latest data
Paper Economy has taken a close look at what it will take to get inflation adjusted housing prices in Massachusetts back to trend over a five year period. It should be noted that for this to happen sooner the decline would have to be deeper (due to inflation doing less of the work for us.)
The [...]
Lance on Jan 14 2008 | Filed under: Developing Markets, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Affairs, Trade
Cafe Hayek fans take note, it is finally out. Short review from Tyler Cowen:
This is the best popular book explaining the benefits of international trade. Imagine Bastiat for 2008, or a Cajun updating of Henry George’s Protection or Free Trade. Sadly it is expensive but I’d sooner give a student this book than [...]
Lance on Jan 11 2008 | Filed under: Baton Rouge News, Economics, Housing Market, Louisiana
While the economic outlook for the nation as a whole is pretty murky, Louisiana, and Baton Rouge specifically, may be in a better position:
Peter Ricchiuti, assistant dean of the A.B. Freeman School of Business at Tulane University, said the New Orleans-area economy is countercyclical because of all the energy interests. When high energy prices cause [...]
Lance on Jan 11 2008 | Filed under: Economics, Federal Reserve, Government policy, monetary policy, tax policy
The economy is slowing, and if we are not already in a recession (I think we probably are) the risks of one are certainly high. So should our politicians do something with fiscal policy? Alex Taborrak says no:
Fourth, in their desperation to “do something” politicians will often do something foolish. If a spending increase [...]
Lance on Jan 07 2008 | Filed under: Domestic Equities, Economic Indicators, Economics, Employment, Inflation, Latest data, Risk, today's links
To start off James Hamilton reviews last weeks depressing economic data, and its effect on the stock market. Which leads to the next question.
Trying to get defensive? The Wall Street Journal notices some of the same things we have been talking about that make it difficult, while the New York Times picks up on another [...]
Lance on Jan 07 2008 | Filed under: Economics, Humor
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Lance on Jan 07 2007 | Filed under: Humor, Taxes, Uncategorized, tax policy
Via Professor Greg Mankiw:
Suppose that every day, ten men go out for beer and the bill for all ten comes to $100. If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this:
The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing.
The fifth would pay $1.
The sixth would pay $3.
The [...]
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