This week we look at a report called “Working Out of Debt,” from the McKinsey Global Institute. It is one of the best, most definitive pieces on the topic I have read. For those trying to understand how the deleveraging process will affect their particular world it is a must-read. Deleveraging is the critical...
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Although a number of economic indicators have recently improved, the economy is now entering a period of high risk. When we look at the numbers, it is difficult to tell where additional growth will come from. Although consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of GDP, picked up from June through November, this was...
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Angela Merkel is leading the call for a rule change, a rewiring of the basic treaty that binds the EU. But is it both too much and too late? Then I glance over the other way and take notice of news out of China that may be of import.
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Germany is roundly seen as the obstacle to saving the Euro by refusing to allow massive bond purchases and refusing to consider Eurobonds. The real obstacles however are poor options, not Germany.
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Long-time readers will be familiar with Michael Lewitt, one of my favorite thinkers and analysts. John Mauldin has permission to use the first half of this most recent letter as today’s Outside the Box as he examines the empire of debt the world creaks under.
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Niels Jensen looks at the debt situation in the developed world, the implications for Europe and the potential opportunity in European equities and corporate bonds.
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John Mauldin looks into whether the European debt crisis is solved. Looking deeply there is more to the market "melt-up" than simple euphoria and relief. What you find is a very disturbing unintended consequence that will come back to haunt us.
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Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt expect an out and out contraction to begin again over the next two quarters.
Comstock Partmers expounds on the dynamics of debt deflation and its implications for today's environment.
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The problem ultimately from an economic point of view is the mountain of debt. Short term it may be argued, and I say that with caution, that keeping debt from falling is what we needed to do to give us time to work it down in an orderly manner. However, working that mountain of...
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Given the carnage in the banking sector overseas it seems pretty hard to justify the idea that people are too optimistic about any financial sector or group overall, but maybe markets still are? Let us forget the specific problems we have been discussing about European financials including them being even more leveraged than here...
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Let us look at one of the ways that we are being panicked unnecessarily, and why incidentally we can help many of these financial institutions in the fashion I discussed in my post on a potential alternative plan. In my next post we will discuss ways in which we are not being misled, and...
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I do believe we should be doing something as a nation, through our government, to avoid the not insignificant chance of a total financial meltdown. I have seen several things proposed that I find interesting, and I will get into them and other longer term issues in coming days. I had hoped to address...
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Can I ask for some applause for this from Crossing Wall Street? I have to agree with Frederic Mishkin of the Fed: I think there is too much focus on what decision will be made about the federal funds rate target at the next FOMC meeting. What is important for pricing most financial assets...
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