Lance on Sep 17 2009 | Filed under: Uncategorized
American Public Media’s Paddy Hirsch does a good job of breaking down the deflation and inflation risks we are facing. I think he ends up discussing the likely outcome. Deflation, or at least very low inflation, for the next 2-3 years followed by accelerating inflationary pressures for the next 5-7 years.
Inflation from Marketplace on Vimeo.
Lance on Dec 03 2008 | Filed under: Humor, economy
I hear repeatedly from our fellow citizens “where is my bailout?” For those who have been wondering the fine journalists at Vanity Fair have found the paperwork so you can begin applying now for, as the application says, “free government cash.” (Click image for Large Version.)
Lance on Nov 21 2008 | Filed under: Humor
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Lance on Nov 17 2008 | Filed under: Economics, International Equities, Risk
Given the carnage in the banking sector overseas it seems pretty hard to justify the idea that people are too optimistic about any financial sector or group overall, but maybe markets still are? Let us forget the specific problems we have been discussing about European financials including them being even more leveraged than here in [...]
Lance on Oct 12 2008 | Filed under: Economics, Federal Reserve, economy
Yves Smith hits a theme I have been harping on, the Federal Reserve, and central banks in general, are making things worse in may ways by destroying the incentive for banks to lend or borrow from one another. She quotes James Bianco of Arbor Research:
The Fed’s massive and numerous liquidity facilities are making things worse. [...]
Lance on Oct 05 2008 | Filed under: Federal Reserve, Government policy, economy
I am often asked about individual bank stocks, especially JP Morgan. Generally my answer is that Bank of America, JP Morgan and a few others look to be likely survivors, but how profitable they will be I am really unsure.
JP Morgan is a special discussion, because I point out a rather astonishing fact, they have [...]
Lance on Oct 02 2008 | Filed under: Economics, Federal Reserve, Housing Market, economy
Tyler Cowen states his basic views on the crisis. My response in italics:
1. Glass-Steagall repeal was not a major cause of the financial crisis, nor was government-induced “minority lending.”
I agree on the first, the second charge has some validity, but only in terms very different than the typical charge.
2. We should use regulation to [...]
Lance on Oct 01 2008 | Filed under: economy
Let us look at one of the ways that we are being panicked unnecessarily, and why incidentally we can help many of these financial institutions in the fashion I discussed in my post on a potential alternative plan. In my next post we will discuss ways in which we are not being misled, and why [...]
Lance on Oct 01 2008 | Filed under: economy
I do believe we should be doing something as a nation, through our government, to avoid the not insignificant chance of a total financial meltdown. I have seen several things proposed that I find interesting, and I will get into them and other longer term issues in coming days. I had hoped to address this [...]
Lance on Aug 14 2008 | Filed under: Domestic Equities
Back in February of 2007 we began to scrub our portfolio’s of all exposure to financials, which wasn’t very high at that point anyway. Needless to say, instant alpha.
Of course, the follow on question I get repeatedly, especially those who have been investing with Bill Miller and Legg Mason Capital all the way down, is [...]
Lance on Jul 09 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market, Politics, economy, real estate
You may remember the website we discussed back in January. Dale Franks just discovered their program, because they now are on Television. He asks the obvious question:
So, should the mortgage companies get off scott-free from facing the results of their poor business decisions when it comes to the loans—loans they shouldn’t have made in the [...]
Lance on Jul 07 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Domestic Equities, Domestic Fixed Income, Economics, Risk, economy
Heavier hitters than myself are slowly lining up to put out estimates of the total losses from the credit crisis more in line with my thinking. Welcome aboard!
Using far more “off the cuff” methods than Nouriel Roubini, the IMF, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, UBS, John Paulson or Goldman Sachs, I have been expecting the starting [...]
Lance on Feb 04 2008 | Filed under: Domestic Fixed Income, Federal Reserve, Risk, economy
Much of what has been happening over the last year in the credit markets was foreseeable, if not assured. I will admit though, I hadn’t really considered this aspect.
A while back MBIA, AMBAC and other monoline insurers backed sleepy municipal bond portfolio’s. Having entered, and then become ensnared, in the broader credit markets, they face [...]
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