Despite markets having more moves than a MLB shortstop hitting .200, not all that much has changed in the past three weeks. We are still awaiting the latest iteration of a "plan" out of Europe, coincident economic data for the US remains ok, though leading indicators continue to forecast that a recession is already...
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We regularly hear/see market players comment that the bond market is smarter than the stock market. Is that really true this time?
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Mark Hulbert addresses a topic that is quite timely. When different advisers or commenters arrive at different conclusions, especially when they seem to be using the same type of reasoning, how do we know what to think? Frankly, most of the time we humans tend to choose the conclusion which we want the data...
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Ben Inker on why Quality is the way to go. While there are always exceptions, at the asset class and sub assset class level we could not agree more.
Vincent argues that the flawed foundation of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) that risk=volatility has allowed MPT advocates to control the language of the debate and set the stage for the obvious conclusion that passive index-based investing is inherently superior. And don’t think for a second that this debate is simply theoretical, academic, or unimportant–...
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As far as I know Jeremy Grantham has never appeared for the general public on TV or video. We get a real treat from Consuelo Mack of Wealthtrack with Jeremy dispensing advice about where the market is now. Like myself he sees the market as reasonably cheap, but not spectacularly so. He gives sound...
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Yes, but they are supposed to be if you want reasonable returns for the risk, which is one more reason the Fed Model is wrong. Compared to the past however not that cheap. Jim Hamilton takes a look: We’re currently at a P/E around 14, a bit below the historical long-run average P/E of...
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Heavier hitters than myself are slowly lining up to put out estimates of the total losses from the credit crisis more in line with my thinking. Welcome aboard! Using far more “off the cuff” methods than Nouriel Roubini, the IMF, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, UBS, John Paulson or Goldman Sachs, I have been expecting...
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Goldman’s Murti Says Oil `Likely’ to Reach $150-$200 Do you remember when Murti was derided for making the call that oil was going to have a superspike? I do, and I was one of the skeptics, though only for a brief while. Crude oil may rise to between $150 and $200 a barrel within...
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Mark Hulbert reports on two indicators that historically have pointed towards above average returns for stocks: The indicator in question focuses on corporate money-raising. Considerable research has shown that when companies turn aggressively to the equity market for their financing needs, through new issues or secondary offerings, it is a sign that the stock...
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The Financial Times writes of his feeling of vindication. Jeremy never falls out of favor here, but then, we are a client. Inevitably when he is early, as he generally is, people take it as a sign he is wrong, and note the returns he gives up when he frequently goes against the tide....
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The whole world of economics is enormously more complex than the world of physics. And therefore the teaching of business schools, including Yale’s, is unrealistic. Even though economics is a very old subject, it has not truly come to grips with the main difficulty, which is the inordinate practical importance of a few extreme...
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Given this post, I should be a bit clearer about what I expect going forward. As to timing, I have opinions about what is most likely, but timing is a tricky thing. However, at some point in the future I expect that the S&P500 will not retain its gains beyond what was made in...
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The recent downturn from the high in October has led to a great deal of chatter about the markets being cheap. That the recent turmoil has presented us with wonderful buying opportunities based on valuation. Readers here know that I disagree, and vehemently. Which doesn’t mean there isn’t money to be made as speculators....
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When assessing risk it always pays to assume that whatever risks you identify there are others associated with them that you haven’t. I pointed out the other day a risk that was associated with my negative outlook over the last year and a half that I hadn’t seen ahead of time. Here is another....
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One of my favorite people to read is Rob Arnott, who never ceases to examine every truism, shibboleth and academic orthodoxy in the field of finance. What are alpha and beta? Why and when is it important to distinguish between them. All About Alpha reviewed some of his points a little over a year...
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Finally it is the long-term investor, he who most promotes the public interest, who will in practice come in for most criticism, wherever investment funds are managed by committees or boards or banks. For it is in the essence of his behaviour that he should be eccentric, unconventional and rash in the eyes of...
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