Video of Interest

Video of interest

Kyle Bass: Eurozone as Doomsday Machine

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December 14, 2011

We have two bits of commentary from Kyle Bass today. First he gave his usual straight forward views to CNBC this morning. Second his latest letter. Unfortunately I cannot find a version of the letter that can be printed or downloaded, so you will need to read it online.

From the Interview

“If you get out a blank piece of paper and have a look at it, that’s the plan they’re working from right now. Everything is an agreement in principle. There are no details. It’s very difficult to arrange such a disparate group of people, and get them all to cede their fiscal sovereignty to call it a central taxing authority, and in the absence of that, it won’t work.

…I think that if you look at this last agreement, from the last summit, it’s somewhat of a doomsday machine. What they’re talking about, are the ECB and governments guaranteeing the debts of the banks which in turn buy the debts of their country that’s making that guarantee, pledging it at that central bank and getting more money to go buy more debt of those countries.

It’s somewhat sophomoric if you ask me. It is a circular reference that I don’t think institutional investors around the world are going to buy, they might hoodwink some retail investors into buying these things. When you look at the periphery today, there are no buyers of peripheral bonds.”

 

From his latest letter:

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An Interview with Seth Klarman and Charlie Rose

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November 29, 2011

Legendary value investor Seth Klarman sat down with Charlie Rose have a marvelous interview discussing Klarman’s involvement with Facing History, his cult investment classic, “Margin of Safety” and his approach to investing. Buying the book is prohibitively expensive ($1200.00 on Amazon) but you can e-mail me and I will gladly send you a pdf copy for free.

An Interview with Seth Klarman and Charlie Rose from Facing History and Ourselves on Vimeo.

Rosenberg: Modern Day Depression

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November 14, 2011

David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff joined Consuelo Mack this weekend to discuss  the economy.

Rosenberg says we  are 4 years into a depression that will likely last almost a decade. He says the economy is likely  contract in 2012. He believes investors should stress income at a reasonable price and corporate bonds.

 

Things That make You Go Hmmm…11/13/2011

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November 14, 2011
Hmmm November 13 2011_Page_11_Image_0001

Grant Williams always fascinating newsletter, “Things That Make You Go Hmmm…” with humor and astonishment looks at Europe and various things that make him go Hmmm….
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Things That make You Go Hmmm…11/7/2011

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November 8, 2011
Rodin's Thinker

Grant Williams brings his always fascinating newsletter, "Things That Make You Go Hmmm..." to Risk and Return. With characteristic humor grant looks at Europe, the potential for investing in Uranium and various things that make him go Hmmm....
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Deficits, Debt and Demographics

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October 17, 2011

Rob Arnott on the three storms for investors to understand.

Jean-Marie Eveillard

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October 3, 2011

The legendary value investor speaks about today’s markets, gold and the pockets of value starting to open up.

In the US he feels Robert Shiller is right, and the US stock market is still overvalued. The only major stock market he sees that is truly cheap is Japan.

Soros: The Recession is Already Here

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September 22, 2011

From Cullen Roche:

In an interview with CNBC yesterday Soros made some blunt comments:

  • The USA is already in a double dip recession.
  • The USA needs more fiscal stimulus.
  • Europe could experience TWO or THREE periphery defaults. They would most likely remain in the EMU and default would be controlled. Uncontrolled default could result in defection.
  • The Euro currency should remain fairly strong even in the case of defaults.
  • The European leaders are way behind the curve here.
  • A form of a central Treasury is required in Europe
  • This is a “more dangerous” situation than Lehman Bros.
  • The EMU will do what it takes to hold it all together.

 

Hayek, Keynes and How to Prevent Economic Crises: Sylvia Nasar

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September 15, 2011

Bloomberg has an excerpt from Sylvia Nasar’s new book on the history of economics. It deals with the years when Hayek and Keynes were considered rivals. The two men were not as far apart as many believe, in fact Keynes was a hero of Hayek’s and this short piece illustrates that:

“One year after Bretton Woods, the Cold War had started,“The Road to Serfdom” was on American best-seller lists, and Hayek went on a wildly successful book tour around the U.S. Along the way, to the annoyance of his conservative sponsors, he spoke up in favor of the Bretton Woods treaty and the framework of international government cooperation that Keynes had done so much to bring about.”

Murray Rothbard would be horrified.

If you missed the 4 minute history of economic ideas I posted earlier here it is again:

Kyle Bass: No Lehman moment, but Greece will default in a disorderly fashion

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September 14, 2011

Kyle Bass has been on of the most successful and insightful investment managers of the last decade. On CNBC to day he discussed his view on the crisis in Europe. While nothing is certain, Kyle Bass expresses my own views on how the situation in Europe is likely to play out better than I could hope to. An important point that sometimes gets lost, ironically from bulls who call such outcomes “inconceivable” is that it is not the end of the world. It is not a prediction of Armageddon or any of the other hysterical adjectives used to describe those of us who have believed this situation was not fixed, nor likely to be fixed.

 …like we’ve talked about for three years, there’s only one way out in my opinion of this debt mess and it’s through restructuring and that means default. It’s not the end of the world. It just means a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money and then we’ll get up the next day and go back to work.

 

Julian Robertson on the Macro Environment

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September 13, 2011


Bob Janjuah on the Stock Market

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September 11, 2011

Still overvalued, lousy environment though a decent equity bounce could happen sometime in the next few months.

ECRI Sees the “Pervasive” Slowdown Continuing

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September 1, 2011

Lakshman Achuthan, head of ECRI, gives an update of where their leading indicators are pointing. ECRI’s indicators are still down and Lakshman reiterates this will not be a transitory slowdown. The words he used were ”persistent and pervasive.” He still is not ready to declare a recession is predictable however though “things have really decelerated.”

Economic Freedom and the Quality of Life

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August 31, 2011

A 4 Minute History of Economic Ideas

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August 30, 2011

From The Author of “A Beautiful Mind” the inspiration for the movie of the same name we get this wonderful video promoting her latest book, Grand Pursuit: The Story of Economic Genius


Interview with Robert Shiller

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August 30, 2011

Robert Shiller, famous for predicting the Crash of 2000 and the bursting of the housing bubble discusses the role of psychology on stocks, housing and the economy.

Robert Shiller on the Stock Market and Real Estate

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June 16, 2011

I know we keep hearing from many quarters that stocks are cheap. We disagree vehemently and today we bring you an expert witness. Having called the last few bubbles economist Robert Shiller discusses why he believes stocks are at least 40% overvalued and Real Estate could fall in real terms (meaning adjusted for inflation) another 25%. Click read more to see second video. Hat tip: Prag Cap

 

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ECRI: Slow Down is Certain

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June 16, 2011

But maybe there will be no double dip according to ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan. He believes this will be a longer lasting slow down than last Summer (“several quarters”) but more data will be necessary before a double dip is considered likely or ruled out.

From Commodities to Managed Futures

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June 7, 2011

This is a conclusion I arrived at several years ago. Commodities may do well, or they may not, but they do not provide any diversification at this time.

Economists Monkeying Around

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November 5, 2009

What can we learn from monkeys about economics? It seems monkeys value skills, at least those in scarce supply. Download article as PDF
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