Lance on Feb 10 2010 | Filed under: Housing Market
On the heels of last weeks delightfully mixed bag of employment data (job creation looks like it may be out of reverse and into neutral) we get some new housing data. There the signals are more disquieting, if expected (at least by me.) The housing market may now be heading back down.
The interesting aspect of [...]
Lance on Jun 19 2009 | Filed under: Currency, Dollar, Economic Indicators, Economics, Employment, Federal Reserve, Government policy, Housing Market, Inflation, economy
We conducted our first webcast last week, an update on the housing market, unemployment and the economy. We had a couple of technical issues which were a bit distracting, and we need a new microphone, but all in all a fair overview of the economy which was well received by those who attended. The webcast [...]
Lance on Dec 19 2008 | Filed under: Government policy, Housing Market, economy
I have already given the only measure that I think makes sense when it comes to the housing crisis, but people keep coming up with others. Like most of the ideas coming out to deal with this crisis, Glenn Hubbard and Charlie Mayer try to convince us that the way to deal with our credit [...]
Lance on Nov 26 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market
Here is a nice collection of charts based on Robert Shiller’s data. First, the really long term:
For those who haven’t been here before the housing category and tag has lots more on the bubble. My thoughts on the latest data, and that in reality this is long term a good thing, can be found here. [...]
Lance on Nov 25 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market, economy
We keep hearing about positive signs month after month, but the latest data on the housing markets shows the pace of declines has been accelerating and widening, not slowing down.
In my opinion this is good. The decline in prices of overvalued assets is a good thing, whether houses, stocks or debt. The problem has been [...]
Lance on Nov 24 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Emerging Markets, Global Equity, Global Fixed Income, Great Investors, Housing Market, Risk, Valuation, economy
As far as I know Jeremy Grantham has never appeared for the general public on TV or video. We get a real treat from Consuelo Mack of Wealthtrack with Jeremy dispensing advice about where the market is now. Like myself he sees the market as reasonably cheap, but not spectacularly so. He gives sound advice [...]
Lance on Oct 02 2008 | Filed under: Economics, Federal Reserve, Housing Market, economy
Tyler Cowen states his basic views on the crisis. My response in italics:
1. Glass-Steagall repeal was not a major cause of the financial crisis, nor was government-induced “minority lending.”
I agree on the first, the second charge has some validity, but only in terms very different than the typical charge.
2. We should use regulation to [...]
Lance on Aug 25 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Commodities, Developing Markets, Domestic Equities, Domestic Fixed Income, Emerging Markets, Energy, Federal Reserve, Global Equity, Global Fixed Income, Housing Market, Metals, Risk, Valuation, economy, real estate
Hedge Fund manager Doug Kass has some questions that clients should ask of their advisors. I should point out that everybody has a bad year, I assume we will have a point where we will have to ask these questions in a harsher light of ourselves. However, these questions can separate those who you might [...]
Lance on Jul 28 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market, economy
Thanks to Barry Ritholtz I found this analysis from Vladimir Klyuev at the IMF, What Goes Up Must Come Down? House Price Dynamics in the United States.
While I have been of the opinion we have a good ways to go, I think these charts are pretty telling. I don’t see anything here to make me [...]
Lance on Jul 28 2008 | Filed under: Domestic Equities, Economics, Great Investors, Housing Market, Risk, economy
I apologize ahead of time if this post is a bit intemperate.
Buried around a truism, the New York Times has produced a misleading and rather silly piece on the value of “predictions.”
The thrust of the piece is that predicting the markets and the economy, especially in the short term, is fraught with peril. True enough. [...]
Lance on Jul 09 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market, Politics, economy, real estate
You may remember the website we discussed back in January. Dale Franks just discovered their program, because they now are on Television. He asks the obvious question:
So, should the mortgage companies get off scott-free from facing the results of their poor business decisions when it comes to the loans—loans they shouldn’t have made in the [...]
Lance on May 13 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market, Politics, Valuation, economy, monetary policy
From the New York Times:
Earlier this year, Mr. Bush derided a modest plan to provide $4 billion to states and localities to buy foreclosed properties, saying that buying up empty homes helps only “the lenders or the speculators.” Actually, it protects entire neighborhoods and local economies from the effects of foreclosures by preventing a greater [...]
Lance on Apr 07 2008 | Filed under: Domestic Equities, Economic Indicators, Economics, Housing Market, Latest data, economy
Personally I think we have been negative since November. Given the large positive number in the third quarter, the barely above break even number in the fourth quarter virtually guarantees that the economy went negative sometime in November and December. However, if we are not, it is highly likely coming. Here is a graphic which [...]
Lance on Feb 24 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market, Latest data, Politics, Risk, economy, indexes, real estate, today's links
We should start out with some humor:
A robber in a ski mask blamed the bank for what he was about to do, The Associated Press reported Feb. 22.
“You took my house, now I’m going to take your money!” the assailant hollered. Talk about a reverse mortgage!
The FBI plans to review the bank’s foreclosure records for [...]
Lance on Feb 21 2008 | Filed under: Domestic Equities, Domestic Fixed Income, Economics, Federal Reserve, Global Fixed Income, Government policy, Housing Market, Risk, economy, monetary policy
Martin Feldstein, stepping down from heading up the National Bureau of Economic Research since 1977, has piece in the Wall Street Journal that is rather pessimistic about the economic outlook. More tellingly he thinks the recession, if it occurs (and like me, he suspects it has already begun) will be more difficult to stimulate our [...]
Lance on Feb 14 2008 | Filed under: Economics, Housing Market, monetary policy
So claims Alex Tabarrok. Alex and his blogmate Tyler are two of my favorite bloggers, but on this matter I think Alex is wrong. Unlike for some, his argument doesn’t invite scorn, because humility should teach us that sometimes things are different, and we cannot always fully understand why, at least not until after the [...]
Lance on Feb 11 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market
Anybody see a bottom when this kind of thing is happening?
“Luxury builder Toll Brothers Inc (TOL), hurt as many buyers to try to get out of contracts for new homes amid falling prices, says a member of its founding family is trying to walk away from an agreement to buy a new condominium.
The daughter of [...]
Lance on Feb 11 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Economics, Great Investors, Housing Market, Risk, Valuation
Jeremy Grantham echoes a few themes here at Risk and Return in this interview with Barron’s:
Secondly, this occurred at a time of what I believe is the first global bubble in pretty well all asset prices, so there is a much greater degree of broad-based vulnerability.
Lance on Feb 10 2008 | Filed under: Economic Indicators, Economics, Housing Market, technology
From the Financial Times:
Global spending on IT goods and services is expected to grow … 6 per cent … according to Forrester Research … This represents a significant slowdown from 12 per cent growth last year.
…
“Our forecast is premised on a mild recession in the US economy in the first two or three quarters of [...]
Lance on Jan 30 2008 | Filed under: Economic Indicators, Housing Market
youwalkaway.com
I really have little to add to my declaration of extreme discomfort.
H/T: Barry Ritholtz
Much more on this here.
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