Archive for the 'Housing Market' Category
Lance on Aug 25 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Commodities, Developing Markets, Domestic Equities, Domestic Fixed Income, Emerging Markets, Energy, Federal Reserve, Global Equity, Global Fixed Income, Housing Market, Metals, Risk, Valuation, economy, real estate
Hedge Fund manager Doug Kass has some questions that clients should ask of their advisors. I should point out that everybody has a bad year, I assume we will have a point where we will have to ask these questions in a harsher light of ourselves. However, these questions can separate those who you might [...]
Lance on Jul 28 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market, economy
Thanks to Barry Ritholtz I found this analysis from Vladimir Klyuev at the IMF, What Goes Up Must Come Down? House Price Dynamics in the United States.
While I have been of the opinion we have a good ways to go, I think these charts are pretty telling. I don’t see anything here to make me [...]
Lance on Jul 28 2008 | Filed under: Domestic Equities, Economics, Great Investors, Housing Market, Risk, economy
I apologize ahead of time if this post is a bit intemperate.
Buried around a truism, the New York Times has produced a misleading and rather silly piece on the value of “predictions.”
The thrust of the piece is that predicting the markets and the economy, especially in the short term, is fraught with peril. True enough. [...]
Lance on Jul 09 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market, Politics, economy, real estate
You may remember the website we discussed back in January. Dale Franks just discovered their program, because they now are on Television. He asks the obvious question:
So, should the mortgage companies get off scott-free from facing the results of their poor business decisions when it comes to the loans—loans they shouldn’t have made in the [...]
Lance on May 13 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market, Politics, Valuation, economy, monetary policy
From the New York Times:
Earlier this year, Mr. Bush derided a modest plan to provide $4 billion to states and localities to buy foreclosed properties, saying that buying up empty homes helps only “the lenders or the speculators.” Actually, it protects entire neighborhoods and local economies from the effects of foreclosures by preventing a greater [...]
Lance on Apr 07 2008 | Filed under: Domestic Equities, Economic Indicators, Economics, Housing Market, Latest data, economy
Personally I think we have been negative since November. Given the large positive number in the third quarter, the barely above break even number in the fourth quarter virtually guarantees that the economy went negative sometime in November and December. However, if we are not, it is highly likely coming. Here is a graphic which [...]
Lance on Feb 24 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market, Latest data, Politics, Risk, economy, indexes, real estate, today's links
We should start out with some humor:
A robber in a ski mask blamed the bank for what he was about to do, The Associated Press reported Feb. 22.
“You took my house, now I’m going to take your money!” the assailant hollered. Talk about a reverse mortgage!
The FBI plans to review the bank’s foreclosure records for [...]
Lance on Feb 21 2008 | Filed under: Domestic Equities, Domestic Fixed Income, Economics, Federal Reserve, Global Fixed Income, Government policy, Housing Market, Risk, economy, monetary policy
Martin Feldstein, stepping down from heading up the National Bureau of Economic Research since 1977, has piece in the Wall Street Journal that is rather pessimistic about the economic outlook. More tellingly he thinks the recession, if it occurs (and like me, he suspects it has already begun) will be more difficult to stimulate our [...]
Lance on Feb 14 2008 | Filed under: Economics, Housing Market, monetary policy
So claims Alex Tabarrok. Alex and his blogmate Tyler are two of my favorite bloggers, but on this matter I think Alex is wrong. Unlike for some, his argument doesn’t invite scorn, because humility should teach us that sometimes things are different, and we cannot always fully understand why, at least not until after the [...]
Lance on Feb 11 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market
Anybody see a bottom when this kind of thing is happening?
“Luxury builder Toll Brothers Inc (TOL), hurt as many buyers to try to get out of contracts for new homes amid falling prices, says a member of its founding family is trying to walk away from an agreement to buy a new condominium.
The daughter of [...]
Lance on Feb 11 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Economics, Great Investors, Housing Market, Risk, Valuation
Jeremy Grantham echoes a few themes here at Risk and Return in this interview with Barron’s:
Secondly, this occurred at a time of what I believe is the first global bubble in pretty well all asset prices, so there is a much greater degree of broad-based vulnerability.
Lance on Feb 10 2008 | Filed under: Economic Indicators, Economics, Housing Market, technology
From the Financial Times:
Global spending on IT goods and services is expected to grow … 6 per cent … according to Forrester Research … This represents a significant slowdown from 12 per cent growth last year.
…
“Our forecast is premised on a mild recession in the US economy in the first two or three quarters of [...]
Lance on Jan 30 2008 | Filed under: Economic Indicators, Housing Market
youwalkaway.com
I really have little to add to my declaration of extreme discomfort.
H/T: Barry Ritholtz
Much more on this here.
Thanks for visiting Risk and Return. Please feel free to contact us with any questions and/or comments. Please note our disclaimer.
Lance on Jan 24 2008 | Filed under: Economics, Housing Market, Latest data
(Cross Posted at Risk and Return)
Of course prices have just started to decline. First you have to have sales volume decline and inventory build up:
Sales of existing homes fell in December, closing out a horrible year for housing in which sales of single-family homes plunged by the largest amount in 25 years. The median home [...]
Lance on Jan 23 2008 | Filed under: Domestic Equities, Economic Indicators, Economics, Housing Market
Dale Franks gives his rundown on what to look for going forward from the economy, and the implications for investors:
We’ve dropped off about 20% from the stock price highs of October, so we’re about due for a rally. Especially with the Fed obliging everyone with rate cuts. At this point, though, I’d look askance at [...]
Lance on Jan 23 2008 | Filed under: Domestic Equities, Economic Indicators, Economics, Federal Reserve, Global Equity, Government policy, Housing Market, International Equities, Latest data, Market Data, Risk, monetary policy
Like me, Barry Ritholtz sniffed a whiff of panic in the Fed’s actions yesterday. The question he asks is why they acted before their meeting. Here are his questions, all good. I have pretty much stolen the whole post. Hopefully Barry will not mind:
What does this mean for investors. Quite a number of things – [...]
Lance on Jan 17 2008 | Filed under: Developing Markets, Economics, Emerging Markets, Federal Reserve, Housing Market, Latest data, Risk
Ben Bernanke gives Congress and the President the green light to take steps to stimulate the economy along with a warning:
Lance on Jan 17 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market, Latest data
There has been a considerable difference between the two indexes of housing prices. Calculated Risk notes a new paper analyzing why and notes these implications:
This suggests that one of main differences between OFHEO and Case-Shiller was that Case-Shiller included many non-agency homes financed with subprime loans. These homes saw more appreciation during the boom, and [...]
Lance on Jan 17 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Domestic Equities, Economics, Federal Reserve, Government policy, Housing Market, Risk, monetary policy
Reader ChrisB asks in response to yesterdays link to Anna Schwartz’s comment on the Federal Reserve:
In retrospect, what should the fed have done differently?
Risk and Return is really about implications for investment policy, and thus identifying which factors have implications is key. Pumping for particular policy choices really isn’t our role. Still, in identifying what [...]
Lance on Jan 16 2008 | Filed under: Economic Indicators, Economics, Federal Reserve, Housing Market, Latest data, Market Data, today's links
Can I ask for some applause for this from Crossing Wall Street?
I have to agree with Frederic Mishkin of the Fed:
I think there is too much focus on what decision will be made about the federal funds rate target at the next FOMC meeting. What is important for pricing most financial assets is the path [...]
