Archive for the 'economy' Category
Lance on Aug 25 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Commodities, Developing Markets, Domestic Equities, Domestic Fixed Income, Emerging Markets, Energy, Federal Reserve, Global Equity, Global Fixed Income, Housing Market, Metals, Risk, Valuation, economy, real estate
Hedge Fund manager Doug Kass has some questions that clients should ask of their advisors. I should point out that everybody has a bad year, I assume we will have a point where we will have to ask these questions in a harsher light of ourselves. However, these questions can separate those who you might [...]
Lance on Jul 28 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market, economy
Thanks to Barry Ritholtz I found this analysis from Vladimir Klyuev at the IMF, What Goes Up Must Come Down? House Price Dynamics in the United States.
While I have been of the opinion we have a good ways to go, I think these charts are pretty telling. I don’t see anything here to make me [...]
Lance on Jul 28 2008 | Filed under: Domestic Equities, Economics, Great Investors, Housing Market, Risk, economy
I apologize ahead of time if this post is a bit intemperate.
Buried around a truism, the New York Times has produced a misleading and rather silly piece on the value of “predictions.”
The thrust of the piece is that predicting the markets and the economy, especially in the short term, is fraught with peril. True enough. [...]
Lance on Jul 25 2008 | Filed under: Latest data, economy
Durable goods cam in better than expected, though it may only be due to a temporary bump:
Miller Tabak’s Peter Boockvar notes that “the Govt stimulus package has a depreciation tax credit that expires by year end — so companies have to now use it or lose it. That could have had an impact on order [...]
Lance on Jul 09 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market, Politics, economy, real estate
You may remember the website we discussed back in January. Dale Franks just discovered their program, because they now are on Television. He asks the obvious question:
So, should the mortgage companies get off scott-free from facing the results of their poor business decisions when it comes to the loans—loans they shouldn’t have made in the [...]
Lance on Jul 07 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Domestic Equities, Domestic Fixed Income, Economics, Risk, economy
Heavier hitters than myself are slowly lining up to put out estimates of the total losses from the credit crisis more in line with my thinking. Welcome aboard!
Using far more “off the cuff” methods than Nouriel Roubini, the IMF, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, UBS, John Paulson or Goldman Sachs, I have been expecting the starting [...]
Lance on May 13 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market, Politics, Valuation, economy, monetary policy
From the New York Times:
Earlier this year, Mr. Bush derided a modest plan to provide $4 billion to states and localities to buy foreclosed properties, saying that buying up empty homes helps only “the lenders or the speculators.” Actually, it protects entire neighborhoods and local economies from the effects of foreclosures by preventing a greater [...]
Lance on Apr 19 2008 | Filed under: Commodities, Economic Indicators, Economics, Energy, Inflation, Latest data, economy
While spending increased in March by 1.8% over a year ago, adjusted for inflation it was way down. The only reason sales were positive was gasoline, though food sales were positive. Even there, that is mostly due to inflation and rising prices of food and staples.
Lance on Apr 07 2008 | Filed under: Domestic Equities, Economic Indicators, Economics, Housing Market, Latest data, economy
Personally I think we have been negative since November. Given the large positive number in the third quarter, the barely above break even number in the fourth quarter virtually guarantees that the economy went negative sometime in November and December. However, if we are not, it is highly likely coming. Here is a graphic which [...]
Lance on Feb 24 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market, Latest data, Politics, Risk, economy, indexes, real estate, today's links
We should start out with some humor:
A robber in a ski mask blamed the bank for what he was about to do, The Associated Press reported Feb. 22.
“You took my house, now I’m going to take your money!” the assailant hollered. Talk about a reverse mortgage!
The FBI plans to review the bank’s foreclosure records for [...]
Lance on Feb 21 2008 | Filed under: Domestic Equities, Domestic Fixed Income, Economics, Federal Reserve, Global Fixed Income, Government policy, Housing Market, Risk, economy, monetary policy
Martin Feldstein, stepping down from heading up the National Bureau of Economic Research since 1977, has piece in the Wall Street Journal that is rather pessimistic about the economic outlook. More tellingly he thinks the recession, if it occurs (and like me, he suspects it has already begun) will be more difficult to stimulate our [...]
Lance on Feb 17 2008 | Filed under: Economics, Government policy, economy
To spending rather than saving. From Atlas Blogged:
NYC Mayor Bloomberg on the federal economic stimulus plan:
They want to send out a check to everybody to stimulate the economy… I suppose it won’t hurt the economy, but it’s in many senses like giving a drink to an alcoholic.
Hey, hey, hey… alcohol a depressant. This is [...]
Lance on Feb 15 2008 | Filed under: Economics, Federal Reserve, Hedge Funds, Latest data, economy, today's links
Bad news for the monolines. FGIC just got downgraded today to AA. That pretty much puts them out of the business of insuring municipal bonds.
NYS Commissioner of Insurance has suggested splitting the Muni bond business from the rest of the insurers. FGIC seems to now think that isn’t a bad idea. Of course, since Elliot [...]
Lance on Feb 11 2008 | Filed under: Great Investors, Humor, Risk, Valuation, economy
John Hussman is always worth a read. I like this from his letter this morning:
As I wrote in April 2000, bear market psychology typically evolves something like this:
“This is my retirement money. I can’t afford to be out of the market anymore!”
“I don’t care about the price, just get me in!!”
“It’s a healthy correction”
“See, it’s [...]
Lance on Feb 08 2008 | Filed under: Economic Indicators, Economics, economy
Our firm has a long history with Russell Investments , and my personal relationship with the firm goes back all the way to 1983, so I have a great deal of interest in their research.
Michael Dueker is a senior portfolio strategist at Russell and has an interesting model for predicting recessions which he discusses at [...]
Lance on Feb 04 2008 | Filed under: Domestic Fixed Income, Federal Reserve, Risk, economy
Much of what has been happening over the last year in the credit markets was foreseeable, if not assured. I will admit though, I hadn’t really considered this aspect.
A while back MBIA, AMBAC and other monoline insurers backed sleepy municipal bond portfolio’s. Having entered, and then become ensnared, in the broader credit markets, they face [...]
Lance on Jan 28 2008 | Filed under: Great Investors, economy
Really, I just wanted to post this line :
Now celebrating 10 years of predicting the end of the world, George Soros takes a huge dive into the pool of confirmation bias
Go read what he is referring to. Not only is that a compelling image and well written sentence, he is right.
I know, I know. In [...]
