Risk and Return

While spending increased in March by 1.8% over a year ago, adjusted for inflation it was way down. The only reason sales were positive was gasoline, though food sales were positive. Even there, that is mostly due to inflation and rising prices of food and staples.

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Personally I think we have been negative since November. Given the large positive number in the third quarter, the barely above break even number in the fourth quarter virtually guarantees that the economy went negative sometime in November and December. However, if we are not, it is highly likely coming. Here is a graphic which [...]

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From the Financial Times:
Global spending on IT goods and services is expected to grow … 6 per cent … according to Forrester Research … This represents a significant slowdown from 12 per cent growth last year.
…
“Our forecast is premised on a mild recession in the US economy in the first two or three quarters of [...]

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Our firm has a long history with Russell Investments , and my personal relationship with the firm goes back all the way to 1983, so I have a great deal of interest in their research.
Michael Dueker is a senior portfolio strategist at Russell and has an interesting model for predicting recessions which he discusses at [...]

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The GDP numbers came out yesterday. For a breakdown, including the inflation component, go here. For the announcement from the BEA go here. The Fed also cut rates by 50bps. Here is the Journal’s story.

Reactions:
Barry Rithotlz- Q4 GDP: El Stinko!
• Consumption slowed to 2% from 2.8% in Q3; I suspect that only partly reflects real [...]

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youwalkaway.com

I really have little to add to my declaration of extreme discomfort.
H/T: Barry Ritholtz
Much more on this here.
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As I noted earlier, Dale Franks was curious about how Harley Davidson (HOG) would do on its latest earnings release:
One earnings report to watch this week, though, is Harley-Davidson (HOG). It’s a solid company with a loyal customer base—I’m one of them actually—but, motorcycles are a luxury item. For every guy [...]

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Morningstar takes a look at the Long/Short category of mutual funds. They, like I, appreciate John Hussman.
China turned in yet another double digit year:
China’s economy grew by 11.4 per cent in 2007, the highest pace in 13 years, but the trend of decelerating exports to a slowing US recorded in the final two quarters is [...]

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Dale Franks gives his rundown on what to look for going forward from the economy, and the implications for investors:
We’ve dropped off about 20% from the stock price highs of October, so we’re about due for a rally. Especially with the Fed obliging everyone with rate cuts. At this point, though, I’d look askance at [...]

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Like me, Barry Ritholtz sniffed a whiff of panic in the Fed’s actions yesterday. The question he asks is why they acted before their meeting. Here are his questions, all good. I have pretty much stolen the whole post. Hopefully Barry will not mind:
What does this mean for investors. Quite a number of things – [...]

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To start, we are having a boom in our petrochemical industry :
“We have counted $45 billion in construction projects in the area, by far a record number for the region,” Scott says. While other parts of the country struggle economically, the Capital Region is experiencing growth in part from its expanding petrochemical industry.
The film industry [...]

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It seems world markets see the stimulus plan in the US as evidence for panic, not joy.
Stock markets around the world plummeted Monday, prompted by pessimism about U.S. President George W. Bush’s plans to boost the U.S. economy.
Share prices in Asia, Europe and the Americas all plunged by significant amounts; Wall Street only avoided joining [...]

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Can I ask for some applause for this from Crossing Wall Street?
I have to agree with Frederic Mishkin of the Fed:
I think there is too much focus on what decision will be made about the federal funds rate target at the next FOMC meeting. What is important for pricing most financial assets is the path [...]

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To start off James Hamilton reviews last weeks depressing economic data, and its effect on the stock market. Which leads to the next question.
Trying to get defensive? The Wall Street Journal notices some of the same things we have been talking about that make it difficult, while the New York Times picks up on another [...]

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