Archive for the 'Asset Allocation' Category
Lance on Nov 24 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Emerging Markets, Global Equity, Global Fixed Income, Great Investors, Housing Market, Risk, Valuation, economy
As far as I know Jeremy Grantham has never appeared for the general public on TV or video. We get a real treat from Consuelo Mack of Wealthtrack with Jeremy dispensing advice about where the market is now. Like myself he sees the market as reasonably cheap, but not spectacularly so. He gives sound advice [...]
Lance on Nov 18 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Domestic Equities, Valuation, indexes
Yes, but they are supposed to be if you want reasonable returns for the risk, which is one more reason the Fed Model is wrong. Compared to the past however not that cheap. Jim Hamilton takes a look:
We’re currently at a P/E around 14, a bit below the historical long-run average P/E of 16.3, meaning [...]
Lance on Nov 17 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Risk, economy
The insufferable Peter Schiff has a video going around, which frankly, is just brilliant. He may be unpleasant at times, but he nailed this thing, and took mounds of abuse while doing so. More importantly, I KNOW HOW HE FEELS!
The resentment, irritation, condescension and, at times, outright hostility to my Cassandra act makes me wish [...]
Lance on Aug 25 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Commodities, Developing Markets, Domestic Equities, Domestic Fixed Income, Emerging Markets, Energy, Federal Reserve, Global Equity, Global Fixed Income, Housing Market, Metals, Risk, Valuation, economy, real estate
Hedge Fund manager Doug Kass has some questions that clients should ask of their advisors. I should point out that everybody has a bad year, I assume we will have a point where we will have to ask these questions in a harsher light of ourselves. However, these questions can separate those who you might [...]
Lance on Jul 07 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Domestic Equities, Domestic Fixed Income, Economics, Risk, economy
Heavier hitters than myself are slowly lining up to put out estimates of the total losses from the credit crisis more in line with my thinking. Welcome aboard!
Using far more “off the cuff” methods than Nouriel Roubini, the IMF, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, UBS, John Paulson or Goldman Sachs, I have been expecting the starting [...]
Lance on May 06 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Commodities, Energy, oil
Goldman’s Murti Says Oil `Likely’ to Reach $150-$200
Do you remember when Murti was derided for making the call that oil was going to have a superspike? I do, and I was one of the skeptics, though only for a brief while.
Crude oil may rise to between $150 and $200 a barrel within two years as [...]
Lance on Feb 24 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Domestic Equities, Risk, Valuation
Mark Hulbert reports on two indicators that historically have pointed towards above average returns for stocks:
The indicator in question focuses on corporate money-raising. Considerable research has shown that when companies turn aggressively to the equity market for their financing needs, through new issues or secondary offerings, it is a sign that the stock market is [...]
Lance on Feb 20 2008 | Filed under: Absolute Return, Asset Allocation, Great Investors, Relative Return
The Financial Times writes of his feeling of vindication.
Jeremy never falls out of favor here, but then, we are a client.
Inevitably when he is early, as he generally is, people take it as a sign he is wrong, and note the returns he gives up when he frequently goes against the tide. However, the true [...]
Lance on Feb 12 2008 | Filed under: Absolute Return, Asset Allocation, Relative Return, Risk
The whole world of economics is enormously more complex than the world of physics. And therefore the teaching of business schools, including Yale’s, is unrealistic. Even though economics is a very old subject, it has not truly come to grips with the main difficulty, which is the inordinate practical importance of a few extreme events.
-Benoit [...]
Lance on Feb 11 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Economics, Great Investors, Housing Market, Risk, Valuation
Jeremy Grantham echoes a few themes here at Risk and Return in this interview with Barron’s:
Secondly, this occurred at a time of what I believe is the first global bubble in pretty well all asset prices, so there is a much greater degree of broad-based vulnerability.
Lance on Feb 11 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Risk
Given this post, I should be a bit clearer about what I expect going forward. As to timing, I have opinions about what is most likely, but timing is a tricky thing.
However, at some point in the future I expect that the S&P500 will not retain its gains beyond what was made in 2003. All [...]
Lance on Feb 11 2008 | Filed under: Absolute Return, Asset Allocation, Domestic Equities, Great Investors, Hedge Funds, Relative Return, Risk, Valuation, indexes, real estate
The recent downturn from the high in October has led to a great deal of chatter about the markets being cheap. That the recent turmoil has presented us with wonderful buying opportunities based on valuation. Readers here know that I disagree, and vehemently. Which doesn’t mean there isn’t money to be made as speculators. Certainly [...]
Lance on Feb 07 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Domestic Fixed Income, Risk
When assessing risk it always pays to assume that whatever risks you identify there are others associated with them that you haven’t. I pointed out the other day a risk that was associated with my outlook over the last year and a half that I hadn’t seen ahead of time. Here is another.
These trades were [...]
Lance on Feb 06 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Great Investors, indexes
One of my favorite people to read is Rob Arnott, who never ceases to examine every truism, shibboleth and academic orthodoxy in the field of finance. What are alpha and beta? Why and when is it important to distinguish between them.
All About Alpha reviewed some of his points a little over a year ago, and [...]
Lance on Jan 29 2008 | Filed under: Absolute Return, Asset Allocation, Commodities, Developing Markets, Domestic Equities, Domestic Fixed Income, Great Investors, Hedge Funds, International Equities, Managed Futures, Portable Alpha, Relative Return, Risk
Finally it is the long-term investor, he who most promotes the public interest, who will in practice come in for most criticism, wherever investment funds are managed by committees or boards or banks. For it is in the essence of his behaviour that he should be eccentric, unconventional and rash in the eyes of average [...]
Lance on Jan 28 2008 | Filed under: Absolute Return, Asset Allocation, Market Data
Some big losers we had profited from, small cap and REIT’s, had a big comeback last week. We still did fine, but not as well as we could have had they not.
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Lance on Jan 25 2008 | Filed under: Absolute Return, Asset Allocation, China, Domestic Equities, Economic Indicators, Economics, Federal Reserve, Global Equity, Hedge Funds, International Equities, Latest data, Risk, today's links
Morningstar takes a look at the Long/Short category of mutual funds. They, like I, appreciate John Hussman.
China turned in yet another double digit year:
China’s economy grew by 11.4 per cent in 2007, the highest pace in 13 years, but the trend of decelerating exports to a slowing US recorded in the final two quarters is [...]
Lance on Jan 25 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Domestic Equities, Risk, Taxes
Where Have Buybacks Gone, asks the Wall Street Journal? I cannot tell you how often I heard that buybacks were going to keep earnings strong (Ken Fisher in particular comes to mind.) As the Journal points out, that can dry up if people need the capital, or in a related issue, have loaded themselves up [...]
Lance on Jan 17 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Domestic Equities, Economics, Federal Reserve, Government policy, Housing Market, Risk, monetary policy
Reader ChrisB asks in response to yesterdays link to Anna Schwartz’s comment on the Federal Reserve:
In retrospect, what should the fed have done differently?
Risk and Return is really about implications for investment policy, and thus identifying which factors have implications is key. Pumping for particular policy choices really isn’t our role. Still, in identifying what [...]
Lance on Jan 15 2008 | Filed under: Absolute Return, Asset Allocation, Hedge Funds, Latest data, Risk
For investors with the assets to use a full fledged fund of hedge funds, who do we turn to? A collection of Tiger Cubs who had a fine year, so this does not surprise us. From Bloomberg:
Hedge-fund managers known as the Tiger Cubs because they learned to pick stocks at Julian Robertson’s Tiger Management LLC [...]
