Links, brief musings and wisdom from around the web.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index came roaring back this month rising 1.3 points to a still depressed 90.2.
In the weekly retail sales numbers, ICSC-Goldman reports same-store sales rose 1%, though the year-on-year rate dropped to 2.7%. Redbook, meanwhile, says year-on-year sales slowed significantly to 3.1%.
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It’s all about employment today. The Monster employment index rose three points to 151 as online recruiting increased in October. What everyone is really interested in today, though, is the monthly Employment Situation.
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Today's economic calendar is fairly full, so let's get cracking...
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While we are of the opinion that longer term outcomes are not positive, the current rally is due for a pullback that will tell us nothing about intermediate to long term trends. We would expect a pullback here merely because the market is quite oversold.
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David Merkel on Value vs. Growth.
James Dailey on history and inflation.
Today is a big day for economic numbers: The Labor department reports that 103,000 new non-farm payroll jobs were added last month, a slightly higher than expected number, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.1%. The devil is in the details, as always, and the details are not quite as pretty. 322,000 people...
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Year-on-year total sales for the chain-store group are looking a little weak at 5%, and many chains are reducing sales and earnings guidance as a result.
Initial unemployment claims were 401,000 for the week, showing little change from the same period last month.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose to -50.2 last week, up from -53.0.
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The Mortgage Bankers Association reports that mortgage applications fell -4.3% for the week, with purchases down -0.8%, and refinance applications falling -5.2%.
The Challenger job cut report indicates there were 115,730 layoffs last month, swollen by 30,000 jobs at Bank of America and a military troop cut of 50,000...
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Joshua Brown lays out the bear case as thoroughly as necessary. It is the season of the Witch.
ICSC-Goldman reports stronger chain store sales, rising 0.1% for a 3.7% year-on-year increase, up 1% from last week. Meanwhile Redbook reports a slight drop in sales, to a same-store year-on-year rate of plus 4.1%...
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The Coincident to Lagging Indicators ratio continues its decline for the fifth month in a row. It has a 92.5% correlation to the S&P500.
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Prohibition, Carnage on Wall Street, Evil, drinking and eating suggestions for New Orlean's, dividends, flying carpets and bearish thought....
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Today’s economic statistical releases:
We await the releases of vehicle sales, which will come from the manufacturers throughout the day.
Increases in employment and production pushed the ISM Manufacturing Index up slightly to 51.6.
Construction spending rose by 1.4% in August, led by a 3.1% increase in public sector construction.
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Dale Franks
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Typically getting more aggressive when investors show fear, and selling when they exhibit complacency is a good way to increase returns and reduce risk. Every once in a while that isn’t true and the fear is well justified. Sentiment stays on the mat and markets keep going lower. Guy Lerner reviews current sentiment and where we stand.
Personal Income and Spending, Consumer Sentiment, Chicago ISM and more...
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Rail Traffic is weak, but still not declining. From Cullen Roche:
“Rail traffic for the week ending September 24th posted another positive gain with carloads showing 1.1% gains and intermodal traffic showing 3% gains. I think this data is still consistent with a muddle through economy and not the substantially deteriorating economy that many are coming to expect. If we look back to 2008 you’ll actually notice that rail traffic had turned negative well in advance of the recession, but the recent data is still positive although just slightly. In short, this is far from a robust economy, but the rail traffic data does not appear to be consistent with an economy deteriorating substantially.”
“Freight has been going sideways for much of this year, but it isn’t falling significantly either, which suggests the U.S. economy just might skirt another recession,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said.
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GDP Revision, Initial Claims, Pending Home Sales, Corporate Profits revision, Consumer Comfort Index, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index...
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HG Wells can be bought cheap, but fixing Europe will not be and we have the cocktails to take you through it...
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