A big surge in civilian aircraft pushed durable goods orders up 3.8%. Ex-transportation, orders rose 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, orders were up 12.1% overall, and 7.2% ex-transportation.

Both personal income and personal spending rose by 0.1% in November.

New home sales rose 1.6% in November to a 315,000 annual unit rate. Over the last few months, sales have picked up modestly, but from a very low levels, and house prices have continued to decline, down 3.8% last month to a median price of $214,100.

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Originally posted at QandO.
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The Commerce Department’s 3rd estimate of 3Q GDP was again revised downwards, to a 1.8% annualized rate.On a year over year basis, GDP was up 1.5% over 3Q 2010. The downward revision was led by a smaller decline in inventories and less growth in personal consumption.

Initial claims for unemployment fell for the 3rd consecutive week, down 4,000 to a much lower-than-expected level of 364,000. Continuing claims fell 79,000 to 3.546 million, the lowest level of the recovery.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.37 in November from a revised -0.11 in October. Housing is still heavily negative in the report.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index climbed to -45 in the period ended December 18 from -49.9 the prior week.

Consumer sentiment continued to improve, to 69.9 in December from 64.1 in November.

The FHFA reported that house prices in October unexpectedly declined -0.2% after rising 0.4% in September. Analysts had expected a 0.3% rise in prices, not further downward price pressure.

The index of leading economic indicators rose 0.5% in November following October’s 0.9% increase. Positive elements include the treasury rate spread, building permits, consumer expectations, building permits, and falling unemployment claims.

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MBA Purchase Applications fell -2.6% overall last week, with purchases dropping -4.9% and re-fis falling -1.6%. So the positive housing numbers we’ve seen so far this month haven’t affected actual sales. Interest rates are attractively low, but that is balanced by poor employment conditions, tight credit, and a lack of equity.

A sweeping revision to the data method has sharply lowered the last 5 years of existing home sales reports. But last month, sales rose 4%, anyway, well above expectations, and the rest of the report is pretty positive, too, with housing prices firming up, and supply falling. Also, the gains are concentrated in single-family dwellings, and well-distributed geographically.

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Housing starts jumped 9.3% to an annual rate of 685,000. But that jump is led by a 25.3% jump in multi-family dwellings, so don’t assume that individuals are getting ready to buy single-family homes again. Also, the surge is led by a 53.8% increase in the Northeast, balancing off an  18.2% decline in the Midwest.

ICSC-Goldman reports a big bump in retail sales, up 3.4% for the week, and 4.6% over last year. Redbook, however, shows a far more modest increase, with same store sales only up 0.5% from last week, at 3.4%, while the month-to-month number is actually down -2.7%. That doesn’t bode well for the government’s retail sales report for December.

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Mortgage applications rose 4.1% last week, with purchases dropping -8.2% and re-finance applications up 9.3%. The 30-year mortgage rate averaged 4.12%., the lowest rate of the year.

Import prices rose 0.7% last month—9.9% for the year—due to spikes in petroleum prices. Ex-Petroleum, prices fell -0.2%, following a 0.3 percent ex-petroleum decline in the prior month. Export prices rose 0.1% for the month and 4.7% over last year.

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November retail sales weren’t as strong as expected, rising 0.2% both overall, and ex-autos. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales were up 6.6%. Despite the rather disappointing November sales, both September and October sales were revised upwards.

The post-Black Friday sales slump continued last week. Redbook reports that the year-on-year same-store sales rate slowed by -0.3% to 2.9% this week. Similarly, ICSC-Goldman Store Sales are slowing, just like Redbook, with sales down -2.3% last week, and up only 2.8% year-over year.

Business inventories continue to build at a moderate rate, up 0.8% last month. The stock-to-sales ratio is unchanged at 1.27, as inventory build-up continues to match the rate of sales.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index indicates easing pessimism among businesses, with the index up 1.8 points to 92.0.

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index rose only 0.1% in November, to 94.84. The index is only up 0.9% over last November.

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Leading overall growth of U.S. exports, Louisiana’s year-to-date 2011 worldwide merchandise exports increased by 45% in value over the same period in 2010, according to a report issued today by the World Trade Center of New Orleans. Through the third quarter, Louisiana exports totaled $39.8 billion, compared to $27.4 billion the previous year. Louisiana’s principal export markets through the third quarter were China ($4.01 billion), Mexico ($3.99 billion) and Japan ($2.75 billion), followed by the Netherlands, Canada, Singapore and Korea. Total U.S. exports were up almost 18% through the third quarter, with Louisiana ranking seventh among all states, compared to ninth for the same period in 2010. Among the top 10 exporting states, Louisiana had the highest rate of growth, far outpacing Illinois’ 32% increase. “2011 has been a very strong year in almost every sector for Louisiana,” says Larry Collins, Louisiana Economic Development director of International Services. “Economic uncertainty in the euro-zone has had little impact so far; growth in exports to countries like the Netherlands, Spain and Belgium reflect the continued demand for our state’s products around the world.” Exports of petroleum and coal products have seen a year-over-year increase of almost 78% to $13.5 billion through the third quarter, while oil- and gas-related exports have also soared, jumping 559% from $45.8 million in 2010 to $301.9 million in 2011. Louisiana’s other leading categories included agricultural products ($11.9 billion, up 37.2%), chemicals ($6.1 billion, up 31.5%), food products ($3.23 billion, up 15.4%), and minerals and ores ($1.3 billion, up 142%). See a state-by-state ranking of all global exports here, and a ranking of Louisiana’s global exports by country here.

The U.S. trade deficit shrank in October to $43.5 billion from $44.2 billion in September. Both imports and exports declined, with imports declining more.

The consumer sentiment index–while still at fairly depressed levels–rose a strong 3.6 points to 67.7 in the mid-month reading.

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Initial jobless claims fell 23,000 last week to 381,000, the lowest weekly level since February.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index held steady for a second week, at 50.3 compared to the previous 50.2. That’s still a recessionary level of consumer confidence.

Wholesale inventories jumped 1.6% with a strong 0.9% rise in wholesale sales, increasing the stock-to-sales ratio by one tenth to 1.16.

Originally posted on QandO

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Factory orders fell -0.4% in October with both orders for durables goods down -0.5%, and orders for non-durable goods down -0.3%. But this is a report from October, and last week’s ISM manufacturing index indicates that orders came back fairly strongly in November. Whether that will continue if the Euro collapses is another question.

Speaking of the ISM, the non-manufacturing index today shows some slowing in the service sector, as the index fell from 52.9 to 52. A reading above 50 generally indicates expansion.

Originally posted on QandO.

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The Mortgage Bankers’ Association reports that mortgage applications fell -1.2% in the Nov 18 week, with purchase apps up 8.2%, but re-finance apps down -4%.

Weakness in the transportation sector led durable goods orders down -0.7% last month, but up 7.5% from last year. Ex-transportation, orders were up 0.7% for the month, and 11.7% for the year.

Personal spending and income both rose last month, with spending up 0.1% and income up 0.4%. On a year-over-year basis, income has risen 3.9$, but spending rose faster, at 4.7%. The Price Index rose by 0.1% for the month, and 1.7% year-over-year.

Initial unemployment claims rose to 393,000 from last week’s revised 391,000. The 4-week average fell from 396,750 to 394,250.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index was -50.1 last week, from -50 a week earlier. The index has hovered at -50 for 9 weeks.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index fell slightly, to 64.1 from 64.2 last period.

Manufacturing growth in the Kansas City Fed’s district eased slightly, with the KC Fed Index falling from 8 to 4. Future expectations remained solid, though.

Originally posted at QandO.

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3rd Quarter GDP took a downward bump on the Commerce Department’s first revision from 2.5% to 2%. Analysts had expected a revision to 2.4%, so today’s revision was well below that.

The Richmond Fed Index ended 4 months of contraction, coming in at 0, indicating no growth or contraction.

Corporate after-tax profits in the 3rd quarter rose 6.5%.

In weekly retail sales, ICSC-Goldman Store Sales were down -0.9% for the week, and only up 2.8% year-over year. Meanwhile, Redbook reports strong 3.7% sales growth over last year.

Originally posted at QandO.

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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to -0.13, indicating that economic growth, while improving, is still below trend.

Existing home sales rose 1.4 percent in October to a 4.97 million annual rate. Sales are up 13.5% on a year-over-year basis.

Originally posted at QandO.

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Initial jobless claims continue to improve slowly, dropping 2,000 this week to 388,000.

Housing starts stayed fairly steady, though off a bit at a 628,000 annual rate. Housing starts, however, jumped to 653,000, a positive sign for future construction.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index for the week improved to -50 from the last week’s -51.6.

The Philadelphia Fed Survey shows growth slowed in the Atlantic region, falling from 8.7 to 3.6.

E-Commerce sales rose 1.9%, following the 2nd quarter’s increase of 2.6%.

Originally posted at QandO.

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Like the PPI yesterday, the CPI softened last month, down -0.1%, and up 3.6% year over year. The core rate rose 0.1% last month and 2.1% last year.

The Mortgage Banker’s Association reports that mortgage application dropped sharply in the latest week, down -12.2%.

Industrial production was up sharply, rising 0.7% last month, while capacity utilization rate rose to 77.8% in the nation’s factories.

The Housing Market Index rose to 20, the 3rd consecutive 3-point jump, and the highest reading in 18 months.

Originally posted at QandO.

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A decline in energy prices resulted in a -0.3% drop in producer prices, with the core rate, which excludes food and energy, remaining unchanged last month. On a year-over-year basis, producer prices have risen 6.1%, with the core rate rising 2.8%.

Retail sales activity continued to increase in October, rising 0.5% overall, and 0.3% excluding auto sales.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey edged back into positive territory for the first time since May, rising from -8.48 to 0.61. The six-month outlook is strengthening, with predictions of growth in new orders, which should, if it materializes, result in increased hiring as well.

Finally, in the two weekly retail sales reports, Redbook reports pre-Thanksgiving promotions helped boost store sales by 3.3%. ICSC-Goldman says sales rose 0.3% last week, up 3.21% from the year before.

Originally posted at QandO.

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The trade deficit improved last month, falling to -$43.1 billion. Sadly, the improvement comes largely from gold purchases, which isn’t a sign of confidence or hope. It’s a sign of a panicked flight to safety, based on a growing financial terror about the Euro Zone. Yesterday, Barclay’s came out and said (PDF) what everyone has been fearing: Italy is going to default on its debt, and no amount of economic reform will stop it.  Bye-bye, Euro.  Also yesterday, as I predicted, the French and Germans are now discussing  a “core” Euro zone, which would consist of…France and Germany. If Italy goes down, there’s simply no way to wall off the resulting bank failures, credit tightening, and economic contraction that will result from the evaporation of those assets. Presumably, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland will auger in shortly after Italy does, as their debt becomes impossible to service in the resulting Italian contraction. Yet, somehow, the failures of this model of political-economic policy seem lost on American policymakers.

Initial jobless claims continue to edge down, coming in at 390,000 this week. Last week’s claims were revised upwards by 3,000 to 400,000.

Export prices fell -2.1% last month, while import prices dropped -0.6%. On a year-over-year basis, export prices are up 6.3%, and import prices are up 11%.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index edged up slightly last week, though it remains near historic lows at 51.6.

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Originally posted at QandO

Thanks to the debt crisis in Europe, interest rates are dropping here, and the Mortgage Bankers Associations says that’s why purchase applications jumped 10.3% last week.

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index rose 1.1% in October after three consecutive negative months.

Originally posted at QandO.

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