Although a number of economic indicators have recently improved, the economy is now entering a period of high risk. When we look at the numbers, it is difficult to tell where additional growth will come from. Although consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of GDP, picked up from June through November, this was...
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Most U.S. portfolio managers seem to view the EU sovereign debt crisis as they would a pesky mosquito that refuses to fly away. If only the mosquito would leave, the asset managers could concentrate on the U.S. where the economy is said to be showing so much improvement and stocks are incorrectly perceived...
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As everyone knows the EU is meeting today and tomorrow in what is being billed as a last-ditch effort to save the Euro Zone. It is, of course, impossible to come up with a lasting solution in two days after almost two years of a patchwork series of conferences that have spurred short market...
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An emergency ejection of liquidity to prevent immediate Armageddon is not even a first step toward solving Europe's deep-seated problems. It's more or less the equivalent of the proverbial doctor telling a patient to "take two aspirin and see me in the morning". It treats the symptoms, but not the disease. ...
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The European sovereign debt crisis is rapidly approaching what could be a significant tipping point as it threatens to spread to the heart of Europe. In recent days Italian 10-year bond yields have soared to 7.22% and today Spain was forced to pay 6.975% at its auction. Even French 10-year yields have climbed to...
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When the Greek crisis started to emerge in early 2010 we recognized the possibility of contagion and the potential threat to the global economic and financial system, although it was generally dismissed as a manageable problem by the investment community.
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Dr. Austan Goolsbee, formerly the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers of President Barack Obama, is now a professor at the University of Chicago at the Booth School of Business. He appeared on “This Week” on ABC this past Sunday and made some interesting observations.
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We find little reason to change our opinion that the US faces a high risk of slipping back into recession. We cite continuing intractable unemployment, a long term poor housing market, low business confidence, unsustainable growth in sovereign debt, uncertain political and global leadership, and in the current headlines, debt problems in Europe as...
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Comstcok Partners believes that the market rhythm described in this report is forecasting an economy that is heading for a "double dip" recession and a stock market test of the March 2009 S&P 500 low of 670. They believe any attempted rallies probably will not exceed the resistance at 1250 and should be...
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Comstock Partmers expounds on the dynamics of debt deflation and its implications for today's environment.
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