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Recent economic data has been better, but we continue to see indications that leading indicators are pointing to a potential recession. Lakshman Achuthan insists the recent data has no bearing on their recession call. Ed Harrison pinpoints the issue (Ed is a must read by the way) Note Achuthan’s derision for the precision of...
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The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index came roaring back this month rising 1.3 points to a still depressed 90.2.In the weekly retail sales numbers, ICSC-Goldman reports same-store sales rose 1%, though the year-on-year rate dropped to 2.7%. Redbook, meanwhile, says year-on-year sales slowed significantly to 3.1%.
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We will return to our regularly scheduled programming once the insanity has ended. Geaux Tigers!! Download article as PDF
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The Colbert Report Get More: Colbert Report Full Episodes,Political Humor & Satire Blog,Video Archive Download article as PDF
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We have, and will, post a lot of information showing why we are concerned about China experiencing a material slowdown. Today though we have a presentation from the Dragonomics team at Gavekal, a firm that I respect a great deal. This presentation looks at the long run positives for China’s growth, which for the...
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Today we delve into the issue of Europe after the big summit. We look at a round up of commentary on the subject from various viewpoints before summing up with our view of how investors should approach Europe now.
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While we are of the opinion that longer term outcomes are not positive, the current rally is due for a pullback that will tell us nothing about intermediate to long term trends. We would expect a pullback here merely because the market is quite oversold.
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John Hussman asks us to consider the importance of leading versus lagging economic indicators...
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James Dailey sees the potential for a strong rally as the government attempts to unfreeze the mortgage market and Ben Bernanke opens the monetary floodgates...
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Jim Chanos, founder of Kynikos Associates, discusses Global markets with Bloomberg. Chanos thinks the European crisis will flare up again in the coming months. His most important global bearish position is China and Chanos has become increasingly concerned. He has received a lot of criticism as the Chinese economy has seemingly defied gravity. Which...
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Futures are up strongly. Some thoughts on likely outcomes: I don’t believe the plans as announced from Europe are likely to work, even in the short term (next six months.) That assumes they will even be implemented. Even if they are, Europe will still enter a recession. The unintended consequences are frightening. GDP likely...
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I have not read Open Europe's work prior to today. I plan on doing so in the future and evaluating their overall approach to issues. For now I think this is one of the most concise and well thought out discussions of the crisis in Europe...
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David Rosenberg describes what the end of the bull market in bonds, and the end of the bear market in stocks, should look like.
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The legendary investor Felix Zulauf stopped by and had a discussion with Barry Ritholtz the other day and Barry was kind enough to share Felix's thoughts on global markets...
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David Merkel on Value vs. Growth. Download article as PDF
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From the NY Times: (click image for huge version) Hat tip: Barry Ritholtz Download article as PDF
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The bottom line is a) European leaders will likely initiate a forced bank recapitalization within days; b) Greece will default, but the new hold-over funding may give the country a few more months; c) the EFSF will not be "leveraged" by the European Central Bank; d) banks are likely to take haircuts of not...
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The Guardian is reporting that a €2 trillion Euro rescue fund has been agreed to by Germany and France, it is basically a rehash of ideas already floated through requiring a recapitalization of banks and having the European Financial Stability fund insure the first 20% of losses on bonds. This allows the EFSF to...
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Rob Arnott on the three storms for investors to understand. Download article as PDF
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Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt expect an out and out contraction to begin again over the next two quarters. Download article as PDF
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