The whole world of economics is enormously more complex than the world of physics. And therefore the teaching of business schools, including Yale’s, is unrealistic. Even though economics is a very old subject, it has not truly come to grips with the main difficulty, which is the inordinate practical importance of a few extreme events.
-Benoit Mandelbrot
The largest determinant of investment success is how you perform during these extreme events. While a well diversified portfolio may give you incremental performance gains during normal times, one which performs well during extreme events can lead to compounding returns of enormous consequence to your long term wealth.
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