Given this post, I should be a bit clearer about what I expect going forward. As to timing, I have opinions about what is most likely, but timing is a tricky thing.
However, at some point in the future I expect that the S&P500 will not retain its gains beyond what was made in 2003. All the rest, if not more, will likely be given up at some point.
That is not a prediction about the near term, but it would not surprise me if it were to come true over the next year.
Our investment approach does not depend upon it, or even a downturn at all, but it is a risk we have actively accounted for in our approach. Doing so has been a profitable decision for those of you who are in our tactical asset allocation models, both before the recent swoon, and since. I hope that you are pleased and will reward us with your continued confidence.
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