Lance on Feb 24 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market, Latest data, Politics, Risk, economy, indexes, real estate, today's links
We should start out with some humor:
A robber in a ski mask blamed the bank for what he was about to do, The Associated Press reported Feb. 22.
“You took my house, now I’m going to take your money!” the assailant hollered. Talk about a reverse mortgage!
The FBI plans to review the bank’s foreclosure records for [...]
Lance on Feb 24 2008 | Filed under: Asset Allocation, Domestic Equities, Risk, Valuation
Mark Hulbert reports on two indicators that historically have pointed towards above average returns for stocks:
The indicator in question focuses on corporate money-raising. Considerable research has shown that when companies turn aggressively to the equity market for their financing needs, through new issues or secondary offerings, it is a sign that the stock market is [...]
Lance on Feb 21 2008 | Filed under: Domestic Equities, Domestic Fixed Income, Economics, Federal Reserve, Global Fixed Income, Government policy, Housing Market, Risk, economy, monetary policy
Martin Feldstein, stepping down from heading up the National Bureau of Economic Research since 1977, has piece in the Wall Street Journal that is rather pessimistic about the economic outlook. More tellingly he thinks the recession, if it occurs (and like me, he suspects it has already begun) will be more difficult to stimulate our [...]
Lance on Feb 21 2008 | Filed under: Taxes, Wealth, tax policy
Actor Wesley Snipes was found not guilty of federal tax fraud and conspiracy charges earlier this month. Basically he blamed it on the tax advice he received. Whether one believes that he didn’t know that when one earns $38 million you are likely to owe some tax, much less request a 12 million dollar refund, [...]
Lance on Feb 20 2008 | Filed under: Absolute Return, Asset Allocation, Great Investors, Relative Return
The Financial Times writes of his feeling of vindication.
Jeremy never falls out of favor here, but then, we are a client.
Inevitably when he is early, as he generally is, people take it as a sign he is wrong, and note the returns he gives up when he frequently goes against the tide. However, the true [...]
Lance on Feb 18 2008 | Filed under: Around the Web
Daniel Gross sees problems down the road for investments in real estate serving retail merchants. The big threat, online sales growing at 20% annually.
Lance on Feb 18 2008 | Filed under: Great Investors
Individuals who cannot master their emotions are ill-suited to profit from the investment process.
-Benjamin Graham
Lance on Feb 17 2008 | Filed under: Economics, Government policy, economy
To spending rather than saving. From Atlas Blogged:
NYC Mayor Bloomberg on the federal economic stimulus plan:
They want to send out a check to everybody to stimulate the economy… I suppose it won’t hurt the economy, but it’s in many senses like giving a drink to an alcoholic.
Hey, hey, hey… alcohol a depressant. This is [...]
Lance on Feb 17 2008 | Filed under: Great Investors
You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. You are right because your data and reasoning are right.
-Benjamin Graham
Lance on Feb 16 2008 | Filed under: Great Investors
“The four most dangerous words in investing are ‘This time it’s different.’”-Sir John Templeton
Made more dangerous by the fact that occasionally, in some respects, it is. On that thin reed much damage has been done to investors.
Lance on Feb 15 2008 | Filed under: Economics, Federal Reserve, Hedge Funds, Latest data, economy, today's links
Bad news for the monolines. FGIC just got downgraded today to AA. That pretty much puts them out of the business of insuring municipal bonds.
NYS Commissioner of Insurance has suggested splitting the Muni bond business from the rest of the insurers. FGIC seems to now think that isn’t a bad idea. Of course, since Elliot [...]
Lance on Feb 15 2008 | Filed under: Valuation
The word ‘heresy’ not only means no longer being wrong; it practically means being clear-headed and courageous. The word ‘orthodoxy’ not only no longer means being right; it practically means being wrong.
-GK Chesterton
Lance on Feb 14 2008 | Filed under: Economics, Housing Market, monetary policy
So claims Alex Tabarrok. Alex and his blogmate Tyler are two of my favorite bloggers, but on this matter I think Alex is wrong. Unlike for some, his argument doesn’t invite scorn, because humility should teach us that sometimes things are different, and we cannot always fully understand why, at least not until after the [...]
Lance on Feb 14 2008 | Filed under: Uncategorized
The real trouble with this world of ours is not that it is an unreasonable world, nor even that it is a reasonable one. The commonest kind of trouble is that it is nearly reasonable, but not quite. Life is not an illogicality; yet it is a trap for logicians. It looks just a little [...]
Lance on Feb 13 2008 | Filed under: Around the Web
Fallacies do not cease to be fallacies because they become fashions.
- GK Chesterton
Lance on Feb 12 2008 | Filed under: Absolute Return, Asset Allocation, Relative Return, Risk
The whole world of economics is enormously more complex than the world of physics. And therefore the teaching of business schools, including Yale’s, is unrealistic. Even though economics is a very old subject, it has not truly come to grips with the main difficulty, which is the inordinate practical importance of a few extreme events.
-Benoit [...]
Lance on Feb 11 2008 | Filed under: Housing Market
Anybody see a bottom when this kind of thing is happening?
“Luxury builder Toll Brothers Inc (TOL), hurt as many buyers to try to get out of contracts for new homes amid falling prices, says a member of its founding family is trying to walk away from an agreement to buy a new condominium.
The daughter of [...]
Lance on Feb 11 2008 | Filed under: Risk, Valuation
In the insurance business, there is no statute of limitation on stupidity.
-Warren Buffett
If only the monolines (that survive) credit default swap investors, and others could keep this in mind going forward. Risk has to be priced not on the basis of the current environment, but on what that environment might be down the road. In [...]
Lance on Feb 11 2008 | Filed under: Great Investors
Bottoms in the investment world don’t end with four-year lows; they end with 10- or 15-year lows.
-Jim Rogers
Lance on Feb 11 2008 | Filed under: Around the Web
One of my favorite finance bloggers, David Merkel has a new job. I hope it doesn’t slow down his blogging, though he says his new employer feels it is an asset. Very forward thinking of them.
David will be the Chief Economist and Director of Research for Finacorp Securities. Here is the press release and his [...]
alpha Asset Allocation bailout banks Baton Rouge bear market Ben Bernanke credit crisis debt debt crisis deflation Economics economy Employment Federal Reserve finance fiscal policy fiscal stimulus Hank Paulson Hedge Funds housing Housing Market Humor Inflation interest rates investing Jeremy Grantham John Hussman Julian Robertson Louisiana markets monetary policy monoline insurers mortgages quotes real estate recession Risk Robert Shiller stocks subprime Taxes the economy Valuation Warren Buffett
The View from the Bluff |
| Featured |
| Money Manager |
Wall Street Journal- Wealth Wall Street Journal Economic News Wall Street Journal-Market news Wall Street Journal-Hedge Funds Abnormal Returns