We should start out with some humor: A robber in a ski mask blamed the bank for what he was about to do, The Associated Press reported Feb. 22. “You took my house, now I’m going to take your money!” the assailant hollered. Talk about a reverse mortgage! The FBI plans to review the...
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Mark Hulbert reports on two indicators that historically have pointed towards above average returns for stocks: The indicator in question focuses on corporate money-raising. Considerable research has shown that when companies turn aggressively to the equity market for their financing needs, through new issues or secondary offerings, it is a sign that the stock...
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Martin Feldstein, stepping down from heading up the National Bureau of Economic Research since 1977, has piece in the Wall Street Journal that is rather pessimistic about the economic outlook. More tellingly he thinks the recession, if it occurs (and like me, he suspects it has already begun) will be more difficult to stimulate...
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Actor Wesley Snipes was found not guilty of federal tax fraud and conspiracy charges earlier this month. Basically he blamed it on the tax advice he received. Whether one believes that he didn’t know that when one earns $38 million you are likely to owe some tax, much less request a 12 million dollar...
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The Financial Times writes of his feeling of vindication. Jeremy never falls out of favor here, but then, we are a client. Inevitably when he is early, as he generally is, people take it as a sign he is wrong, and note the returns he gives up when he frequently goes against the tide....
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Daniel Gross sees problems down the road for investments in real estate serving retail merchants. The big threat, online sales growing at 20% annually. Download article as PDF
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Individuals who cannot master their emotions are ill-suited to profit from the investment process.-Benjamin Graham Download article as PDF
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To spending rather than saving. From Atlas Blogged: NYC Mayor Bloomberg on the federal economic stimulus plan: They want to send out a check to everybody to stimulate the economy… I suppose it won’t hurt the economy, but it’s in many senses like giving a drink to an alcoholic. Hey, hey, hey… alcohol a...
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You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. You are right because your data and reasoning are right. -Benjamin Graham Download article as PDF
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“The four most dangerous words in investing are ‘This time it’s different.’”-Sir John Templeton Made more dangerous by the fact that occasionally, in some respects, it is. On that thin reed much damage has been done to investors. Download article as PDF
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Bad news for the monolines. FGIC just got downgraded today to AA. That pretty much puts them out of the business of insuring municipal bonds. NYS Commissioner of Insurance has suggested splitting the Muni bond business from the rest of the insurers. FGIC seems to now think that isn’t a bad idea. Of course,...
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The word ‘heresy’ not only means no longer being wrong; it practically means being clear-headed and courageous. The word ‘orthodoxy’ not only no longer means being right; it practically means being wrong. -GK Chesterton Download article as PDF
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So claims Alex Tabarrok. Alex and his blogmate Tyler are two of my favorite bloggers, but on this matter I think Alex is wrong. Unlike for some, his argument doesn’t invite scorn, because humility should teach us that sometimes things are different, and we cannot always fully understand why, at least not until after...
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The real trouble with this world of ours is not that it is an unreasonable world, nor even that it is a reasonable one. The commonest kind of trouble is that it is nearly reasonable, but not quite. Life is not an illogicality; yet it is a trap for logicians. It looks just a...
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Fallacies do not cease to be fallacies because they become fashions. - GK Chesterton Download article as PDF
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The whole world of economics is enormously more complex than the world of physics. And therefore the teaching of business schools, including Yale’s, is unrealistic. Even though economics is a very old subject, it has not truly come to grips with the main difficulty, which is the inordinate practical importance of a few extreme...
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Anybody see a bottom when this kind of thing is happening? “Luxury builder Toll Brothers Inc (TOL), hurt as many buyers to try to get out of contracts for new homes amid falling prices, says a member of its founding family is trying to walk away from an agreement to buy a new condominium....
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In the insurance business, there is no statute of limitation on stupidity. -Warren Buffett If only the monolines (that survive) credit default swap investors, and others could keep this in mind going forward. Risk has to be priced not on the basis of the current environment, but on what that environment might be down...
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Bottoms in the investment world don’t end with four-year lows; they end with 10- or 15-year lows. -Jim Rogers Download article as PDF
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One of my favorite finance bloggers, David Merkel has a new job. I hope it doesn’t slow down his blogging, though he says his new employer feels it is an asset. Very forward thinking of them. David will be the Chief Economist and Director of Research for Finacorp Securities. Here is the press release...
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