Soros’ Doom
Lance on Jan 28 2008 at 9:58 pm | Filed under: Great Investors, economy
Really, I just wanted to post this line :
Now celebrating 10 years of predicting the end of the world, George Soros takes a huge dive into the pool of confirmation bias
Go read what he is referring to. Not only is that a compelling image and well written sentence, he is right.
I know, I know. In most circles I am the prophet of doom, and have been for quite some time, with the exception of a brief respite starting in the summer of 2002. However, that is because of valuation. Crises, panics, speculative excess, recessions, fraud, bull markets, economic booms and general foolishness are what makes investing so interesting. It is also ultimately profitable for those of us willing to resist the markets siren song and invest with an eye to the actual economic return of financial assets rather than the daily movements and fads. Those things work out.
Low returns overall, my definition of a bear market, as opposed to the gyrations of intervening days, months and years, are driven by valuation. Financial assets are generally over valued, so I expect the risk in any of our foolishness, whether I identify it or not, to be rather high.
Soros however really believes actual honest to goodness doom is around the corner, and has for a looong time, not just low returns.
Oh, and clients, I promise you, we don’t expect low returns for you. I hope our results over the last two years, and even in this New Year, demonstrate it is not a vain hope. If this site seems rather pessimistic, I must remind you of one key truth, to solve a problem one must first recognize that there is one.
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