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  • Long Term Investing is never mindless. It is always mindful of where the markets are now, and what that means for the long-term. Patience and looking far ahead tell us what to do today

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  • In a market driven by fear and greed you should be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. ...

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  • Meaningful data gathered and analyzed from around the web. We look for what the headlines and squawking heads are not telling you.                                                      ...

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Caterpillar and the Economic Outlook

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January 26, 2012
Lance

According to Caterpillar the US and Global economy will not go into recession. Should we consider their opinion important?
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Working Out of Debt

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January 24, 2012
Working Out of Debt

This week we look at a report called “Working Out of Debt,” from the McKinsey Global Institute. It is one of the best, most definitive pieces on the topic I have read. For those trying to understand how the deleveraging process will affect their particular world it is a...
Read More »

2+2=1?

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January 23, 2012
James Dailey

At the risk of being drafted as a Republican presidential candidate, I will now lay out how we are flip flopping around on our outlook like a fish out of water. In case you cannot tell by now, our conviction level in a specific narrative as to why markets...
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Staring into the Abyss

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January 21, 2012
John Mauldin 9-4-2011 9-37-24 AM

Europe's leaders are committed to keeping both the euro and the eurozone as it is. But for it to do so, everything must change, as the wonderful quote from the 1958 Italian novel suggests. This is no easy task, as no one wants a change that will impact them...
Read More »

Economy Entering A Period Of High Risk

1
January 20, 2012
David Moser- Comstock

Although a number of economic indicators have recently improved, the economy is now entering a period of high risk. When we look at the numbers, it is difficult to tell where additional growth will come from. Although consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of GDP, picked up from...
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Market Facing Strong Headwinds

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December 19, 2011
David Moser- Comstock

Most U.S. portfolio managers seem to view the EU sovereign debt crisis as they would a pesky mosquito that refuses to fly away. If only the mosquito would leave, the asset managers could concentrate on the U.S. where the economy is said to be showing so much improvement...
Read More »

The Center Cannot Hold

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December 18, 2011
The Center Cannot Hold

John Mauldin looks at the economic implications of the payroll tax cut, some thoughts about Europe and what would have to happen for a country to leave the euro and he closes with some thoughts and graphs about the Keystone XL Pipeline.
Read More »

Kyle Bass: Eurozone as Doomsday Machine

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December 14, 2011

We have two bits of commentary from Kyle Bass today. First he gave his usual straight forward views to CNBC this morning. Second his latest letter. Unfortunately I cannot find a version of the letter that can be printed or downloaded, so you will need to read it online.

From the Interview

“If you get out a blank piece of paper and have a look at it, that’s the plan they’re working from right now. Everything is an agreement in principle. There are no details. It’s very difficult to arrange such a disparate group of people, and get them all to cede their fiscal sovereignty to call it a central taxing authority, and in the absence of that, it won’t work.

…I think that if you look at this last agreement, from the last summit, it’s somewhat of a doomsday machine. What they’re talking about, are the ECB and governments guaranteeing the debts of the banks which in turn buy the debts of their country that’s making that guarantee, pledging it at that central bank and getting more money to go buy more debt of those countries.

It’s somewhat sophomoric if you ask me. It is a circular reference that I don’t think institutional investors around the world are going to buy, they might hoodwink some retail investors into buying these things. When you look at the periphery today, there are no buyers of peripheral bonds.”

 

From his latest letter:

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The NAR is an Unreliable Shill? Ya, Think?

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December 14, 2011
Lance

Long time readers know that I believe the National Association of Realtors reporting and analysis of the housing market is a joke, or it would be if the impact on the lives of those who listened to them were not so tragic. Turns out that their sales data was...
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Sorting Out the Euro Mess

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December 13, 2011
Sorting Out the Euro Mess

Some of the best commentary I have read on the Euro, and from several different directions, from Gavekal. Truly a must read.
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TEAMThink- Summit Reaction

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December 12, 2011
James Dailey

I've definitely developed an acute case of wishing Europe would go away already, and after this week I'm cautiously optimistic that may actually occur in an acute sense for a least a few months. The combo of the ECB announcements on Thursday with what appears to be coming out...
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A Player to Be Named Later

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December 12, 2011
John Mauldin 9-4-2011 9-37-24 AM

We have come to the end of yet another European Summit that was supposed to be the one to fix the problem. If you are confused as to what happened then you are not alone. There are two main points to be taken away from this week's meetings. First,...
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Half Solutions Will Not Work

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December 9, 2011
Lance

Even if Germany and France get everybody to agree to what they want, the Euro will still fail eventually.
Read More »

Additional Liquidity Is Not A Solution

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December 8, 2011
David Moser- Comstock

As everyone knows the EU is meeting today and tomorrow in what is being billed as a last-ditch effort to save the Euro Zone. It is, of course, impossible to come up with a lasting solution in two days after almost two years of a patchwork series of conferences...
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A Visual Guide to the Global Slowdown

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December 8, 2011

Markit Economics has some great charts showing the global nature of the recent slowdown as measured by PMI surveys.

First up, Europe:

More charts at the full post

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TEAMThink 12-7-2011

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December 8, 2011
James Dailey

Despite markets having more moves than a MLB shortstop hitting .200, not all that much has changed in the past three weeks. We are still awaiting the latest iteration of a "plan" out of Europe, coincident economic data for the US remains ok, though leading indicators continue to forecast...
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The Euro Debate Gets Philosophical

1
December 6, 2011
The Euro Debate Gets Philosophical

Today's contribution from John Mauldin's friends at Gavekal is a must read. I often disagree with Gavekal, which is easy to do since as this debate shows they often disagree amongst themselves, but they always make me think.-Lance
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Time to Bring Out the Howitzers

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December 5, 2011
John Mauldin 9-4-2011 9-37-24 AM

This week we saw a coordinated effort by central banks to use their bazookas to head off another 2008-style credit disaster. The market reacted as if the crisis is now over and we can get on to the next bull run. Yet, we will see that it wasn't enough....
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Chart of the Day: Unemployment Rate

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December 2, 2011

Today, the Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate declined significantly to 8.6% — the lowest level in 32 months. For some perspective on the current state of the labor market, today’s chart illustrates the unemployment rate since 1948. As today’s chart illustrates, the unemployment rate has been generally trending lower. However, the pace of that overall downtrend has been significantly slower than what has typically occurred following previous peaks in the unemployment rate. Though, following the previous two recessions, it did take much longer than normal for the unemployment rate to peak. While the significant decline in the unemployment rate for the month of November is a positive step, it is worth noting that the current unemployment rate remains at a level that was surpassed only during two previous periods (1975 and 1982-83) over the last 60+ years.

Notes:

Where’s the Dow headed? The answer may surprise you. Find out right now with the exclusive & Barron’s recommended charts of Chart of the Day Plus.

 

Chart of the Day

Central Bank Action Not A Solution

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December 2, 2011
David Moser- Comstock

An emergency ejection of liquidity to prevent immediate Armageddon is not even a first step toward solving Europe's deep-seated problems. It's more or less the equivalent of the proverbial doctor telling a patient to "take two aspirin and see me in the morning". It treats the symptoms,...
Read More »

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Today’s Data: Durable Goods, Income and Spending, New Home Sales and Prices

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December 23, 2011
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Durable goods orders were up as were personal income and spending. New home sales rose but prices declined...
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Today’s Data: 3Q GDP Revisions, Initial Claims and more

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December 22, 2011
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Big day for data as Q3 GDP was revised downward again, initial claims fell, The Chicago National Activity Index...
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Today’s Data: Mortgage Applications, Home Sales Revisions

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December 21, 2011
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Mortgage applications fell last week. A sweeping revision to the data method has sharply lowered the last 5 years...
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Today’s Data: Housing Starts and Retail Sales

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December 20, 2011
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Housing starts jumped, but mostly due to multi-family dwellings. Retail sales improved, but still down for the month.
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Today’s Data: Mortgage Apps, Import and Export prices

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December 14, 2011
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Mortgage applications rose, purchases dropped and re-finance applications up. The 30-year mortgage rate averaged 4.12%. Import prices rose due...
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Today’s Data: Retail Sales, Inventories, Optimism and Ceridian

0
December 13, 2011
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Mixed data today with retail sales disappointing, inventories building moderately and the Ceridian pulse Index barely budging.
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Louisiana is Leading the Nation in Global Export Growth

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December 12, 2011

Leading overall growth of U.S. exports, Louisiana's year-to-date 2011 worldwide merchandise exports increased by 45% in value over the...
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Today’s Data: Trade and Consumer Sentiment

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December 9, 2011
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The U.S. trade deficit shrank in October with both imports and exports declining. The consumer sentiment index–while still at...
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Today’s Data: Initial Claims, Consumer Comfort and Wholesale Inventories

0
December 8, 2011
Photo of Dale Franks

Initial Claims were down, Consumer Comfort steady and Wholesale Inventories jumped.
Read More »

Today’s Data

0
December 7, 2011
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The only economic release today is that the Mortgage Bankers Association reports that mortgage applications bounced back after Thanksgiving,...
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Todays Data: Retail Sales

0
December 6, 2011
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Today’s economic statistical releases are limited to retail sales numbers for the past week. Redbook and ICSC Goldman both...
Read More »

Today’s Data: Factory Orders and ISM Services

0
December 5, 2011
Photo of Dale Franks

Factory orders fell in October and the non-manufacturing ISM shows some slowing in the service sector.
Read More »

Today’s Data: Mortgage Apps, Durable Goods, Personal Spending, Initial Claims, etc.

0
November 23, 2011
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It was a big day for data, and it was mixed.
Read More »

Today’s Data: GDP, Richmond Fed, Profits and Retail Sales

0
November 22, 2011
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The big story is Q3 GDP has been revised downward.
Read More »

Today’s Data: Chicago Fed and Home Sales

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November 21, 2011
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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to -0.13, indicating that economic growth, while improving, is still below trend....
Read More »

Today’s Data: Jobless Claims, Housing Starts, Consumer Comfort, Philly Fed and E-Commerce

0
November 17, 2011
Photo of Dale Franks

Today we look at a decline in jobless claims, an increase in housing starts, improving consumer comfort and E-Commerce...
Read More »

Today’s Data: CPI, Mortgage Apps, Industrial Production and Housing

0
November 16, 2011
Photo of Dale Franks

Today we look at Inflation data, Mortgage Applications, Industrial Production and utilization, and the Housing Market Index.
Read More »

Today’s Data: PPI, Retail Sales and the Empire Sate

0
November 15, 2011
Photo of Dale Franks

The Producer Price Index, Retail Sales and the Empire Sate manufacturing Index were all released today...
Read More »

Today’s Data: Italian Contagion

0
November 10, 2011
Photo of Dale Franks

The trade deficit improved last month, falling to -$43.1 billion. Sadly, the improvement comes largely from gold purchases, which...
Read More »

Today’s Data: Mortgage Purchases, Ceridian Pulse

0
November 9, 2011
Photo of Dale Franks

Thanks to the debt crisis in Europe, interest rates are dropping here, and the Mortgage Bankers Associations says that’s...
Read More »

Today’s Data: Business Optimism and Sales

0
November 8, 2011
Photo of Dale Franks

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index came roaring back this month rising 1.3 points to a still depressed 90.2.In...
Read More »

Today’s Data: Employment

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November 4, 2011
Photo of Dale Franks

It’s all about employment today. The Monster employment index rose three points to 151 as online recruiting increased in...
Read More »

Today’s Data: Initial Claims, Retail Sales, Productivity…

0
November 3, 2011
Photo of Dale Franks

Today's economic calendar is fairly full, so let's get cracking...
Read More »

Expect a Pullback

0
October 31, 2011

While we are of the opinion that longer term outcomes are not positive, the current rally is due for...
Read More »

2
October 24, 2011

David Merkel on Value vs. Growth.

0
October 15, 2011

James Dailey on history and inflation.

Today’s Data: Employment, Inventories and Credit

0
October 7, 2011
Photo of Dale Franks

Today is a big day for economic numbers: The Labor department reports that 103,000 new non-farm payroll jobs were...
Read More »

Today’s Data: Chain Store Sales, Initial Claims and Consumer Comfort

0
October 6, 2011
Photo of Dale Franks

Year-on-year total sales for the chain-store group are looking a little weak at 5%, and many chains are reducing...
Read More »

Today’s Data: Mortgage Apps, Challenger, ADP and ISM Non-Manufacturing

0
October 5, 2011
Photo of Dale Franks

The Mortgage Bankers Association reports that mortgage applications fell -4.3% for the week, with purchases down -0.8%, and refinance...
Read More »

Season of the Witch

0
October 5, 2011

Joshua Brown lays out the bear case as thoroughly as necessary. It is the season of the Witch.

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